ANALYSIS | Kalaba-Makebi-Mundubile: What the EMV Poll Really Says, & What It Doesn’t
The headline is tempting. A PF-aligned online poll on Emmanuel Mwamba’s EMV platform shows Makebi Zulu at 42.86%, Harry Kalaba at 38.78%, and Brian Mundubile at 12.24%. A source is quoted saying “delaying the inevitable won’t help any of them.” The argument is simple: merge the three, pool the strengths, and “upset” President Hakainde Hichilema.
Here is the sober read.
First, treat the numbers as political temperature, not electoral mathematics. An online poll on a PF-dominated platform is not a national sample. It measures enthusiasm, name recognition, factional energy, and mobilisation capacity among a self-selecting audience. It can tell you who is “hot” inside a particular political neighbourhood. It cannot reliably tell you who wins Zambia.
Second, the distribution itself suggests vote overlap more than vote expansion. The three names being tested are “PF children” split by ambition, ego and succession fights. If the respondents are mainly PF-leaning, they are choosing between variations of the same political family. This means the poll is likely slicing the same base into smaller pieces, not capturing new voters from the centre, the youth swing, or non-aligned urban voters.
Third, the Makebi lead in that environment is consistent with a sympathy narrative rather than a tested national platform. He is framed as “carrying the ECL sympathy vote” and as someone who “stayed with late former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu in his final days and defended his legacy in death.” Sympathy can mobilise a base, especially in certain old PF bases. However, sympathy rarely substitutes for a governing offer on jobs, prices, power, and public services across provinces. Kasama mayoral By-election is a good example.
Fourth, Kalaba’s strength in such a poll is the more interesting signal. If a “non PF presidential hopeful” can pull 38.78% on a PF-heavy platform, it suggests two possible things: PF voters are shopping for an exit from PF litigation, or Kalaba has built acceptability beyond his party label. Still, acceptability is not transferability. A coalition is not a simple addition of percentages. When leaders merge, some supporters disengage, some protest-vote, and some relocate to other camps. Coalitions often lose votes before they gain them.
Fifth, Mundubile’s 12.24% should be read with care. Low numbers in online polls can reflect weak digital mobilisation rather than weak ground structures. KBN TV claims he “commands PF structures.” If that is true, his value in a coalition would show in ward-level machinery, candidate selection discipline, and polling-day organisation, not necessarily in a platform poll dominated by factional emotions.
Sixth, the historic problem for PF-aligned opposition is not shortage of names. It is shortage of expansion. PF’s traditional regions have been shifting, fragmenting, or becoming competitive terrain. By-elections in Zambia often show a pattern: incumbency, state visibility, and local bargaining can reshape loyalties quickly, especially where the opposition is disorganised. If the same PF base is divided across multiple brands, the opponent, UPND, does not need to “convert” the whole base. It only needs the opposition to keep leaking and splitting.
Seventh, incumbency changes the arithmetic. Hichilema’s advantage is not just popularity. It is agenda control, policy visibility, and the ability to nationalise programmes through state machinery. Any “winning ticket” must do more than unite PF factions. It must also convince voters outside the PF emotional corridor that it offers stability, competence, and a credible economic route. Without that, a coalition becomes a reunion tour rather than a governing alternative.
So what does the poll suggest, factually and neutrally?
It suggests PF-aligned voters are still split across personalities and succession stories. It suggests Makebi currently attracts the strongest emotion in that space. It suggests Kalaba is competitive in PF-leaning circles, which may reflect hunger for a “fresh face” without reopening PF baggage. It suggests Mundubile’s coalition argument will lean on structure, not sentiment.
What would make a coalition genuinely competitive?
A single presidential candidate with a clear running mate and a clear division of labour, one message, one legal vehicle, and one candidate list. A policy offer that speaks to cost of living, jobs, energy reliability, mining taxation stability, and youth opportunity, not only “PF unity.” A disciplined approach to the Lungu legacy that respects mourning but does not turn into permanent campaign fuel. Voters can smell “ghost politics,” and they punish it.
Bottom line: this poll reads like a warning flare, not a victory forecast. It shows a crowded PF family house with one meal and too many plates. If they do not reorganise soon, they will not lose with injuring margin because they lacked numbers. They will lose because they lacked timing, cohesion, and expansion beyond the old map.
© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu