Budget must tackle drought scars, energy fragility and shrinking health aid – CTPD
With just days before Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane presents the 2026 National Budget, the Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) has warned that government must move beyond rhetoric and deliver a spending plan that cushions citizens from economic shocks while preparing the country for sustainable growth.
The think tank said the budget is being presented at a time when Zambians are still reeling from the worst drought in decades, erratic power supply, declining donor health aid, and persistent poverty despite record spending through the Constituency Development Fund (CDF).
“The budget comes at a time when Zambia is seeking to consolidate economic recovery, safeguard social protection, and invest in sectors that can drive inclusive growth, while simultaneously navigating the severe impacts of climate change,” CTPD stated.
On mining, CTPD noted that while government has boasted of resolving challenges at Mopani, KCM and FQM, Zambia’s ambition to hit one million tonnes of copper this year and reach 3.1 million tonnes annually by 2031 will collapse without serious investment.
The organisation has demanded full funding for geological mapping, proper formalisation of artisanal mining, and strict enforcement of the Critical Minerals Strategy, including beneficiation and local content rules. “Without tax stability and policy clarity, investor confidence will remain shaky,” CTPD warned.
Turning to agriculture, the think tank reminded government that the 2023/24 drought left over nine million people in distress, yet irrigation covers less than three percent of arable land. It wants at least 20 percent of the agriculture budget allocated to affordable financing for smallholder farmers, especially women and youth.
CTPD also took aim at tobacco exploitation, saying thousands of smallholders remain locked in predatory contracts. It called for the creation of a dedicated fund to help farmers shift into climate-resilient crops like legumes, oilseeds and horticulture while securing better market access.
On energy, the Center argued that Zambia cannot continue over-relying on hydro. The 2023/24 drought exposed this fragility, forcing households and businesses to endure 12-hour blackouts. CTPD has urged government to aggressively fund solar, wind, biomass and off-grid solutions.
It further pointed to weak transmission systems, noting that over 15 percent of generated power is being lost before it even reaches households. “Strengthening the grid and expanding rural access is not optional it’s urgent,” the organisation stressed.
The health sector, CTPD said, faces a looming disaster as more than 3,500 health worker contracts expire this month and the US has already withdrawn US$50 million in medical aid. “Donor taps are running dry. Zambia must find its own resources,” the organisation stated.
To plug this gap, CTPD is calling for increased domestic health financing through higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and sugary drinks measures it argues could raise up to K3.9 billion annually if aligned to global standards.
On the Constituency Development Fund, CTPD said the K36.1 million allocated per constituency risks becoming “a leaking bucket” due to poor accountability, weak loan recovery, and underutilisation. It recommended stronger enforcement and financial literacy programmes for beneficiaries to protect the fund’s sustainability.
As Zambia heads into 2026, an election year, CTPD cautioned against populist spending and politically motivated subsidies. “The temptation to please voters is high, but government must confront funding challenges head-on if it is to secure the country’s future,” the organisation concluded.
©️ KUMWESU | September 24, 2025