EDGAR CHAGWA LUNGU HANDED OVER A ROBUST AND A HEALTHY ECONOMY – Kellys Kaunda

EDGAR CHAGWA LUNGU HANDED OVER A ROBUST AND A HEALTHY ECONOMY

By Kellys Kaunda

According to both the World Bank and the IMF based on official government figures, the following is how the economy performed during the time PF was in office:

2012: GDP = 7.3 to 7.7%;

2013: GDP = 6.6%

2014: GDP = 6.0 to 6.5%

2015: GDP = 3.2 to 4.6%

2016: GDP = 3.4 to 3.7%

2017: GDP  = 3.8 to 4.3%

2018: GDP = 4.0%

2019: GDP = 1.44 to -2%

2020: GDP = -2.79 to -4.2%

2021: GDP = 6.23%.

In 2019, the economy contracted due to a drought which affected agricultural output and electricity supply.

This was further compounded by the outbreak of Pandemic in December of the same year and intensified in 2020.

This is what affected Zambia’s ability to service her debt when the country had always met her obligations.

But Zambia put in place one of the most robust disaster management plans (thanks to Dr. Chitalu Chilufya who was Minister of Health at the time) that kept the economy afloat amid the devastating pandemic.

In addition, an economic recovery program was put in place which included a debt restructuring program under the G2O framework.

A number of development projects were shelved while no further debts were to be contracted.

It was on account of these efforts that the Zambian economy recovered in a resounding fashion ending 2021 on an impressive note of 6.23% in terms of GDP.

Hichilema was sworn into office on the 24th of August 2021, four months to the end of the year.

I know politicians have the obsession of claiming credit for anything good that happens on their watch.

And President Hichilema is no exception to this rule.

However, GDP is a product of the nation’s budget which, in the Zambian case, starts in January and ends in December.

Therefore, the 2021 GDP growth of 6.23% must be credited to the PF under Edgar Chagwa Lungu.

This was the economy that President Hichilema inherited.

And yet, Hichilema told the Zambian people that he inherited an economy in ruins.

It was classic misinformation and disinformation for which, ironically, he is arresting and sending people to jail!

How can an economy growing at 6.23% be in ruins? If this were true, then his economy, using his own logic, which hasn’t even reached these levels yet, must be a disaster!

And yet, he and his supporters describe it as very good and strong enough to begin bearing fruits in all sectors.

Like Hichilema kept telling us while he was in the opposition, numbers don’t lie.

I accept that economic fundamentals are looking good. We can argue on adjectives such as ‘very’ good economy or not.

But that’s neither here nor there. What is important is what the numbers are saying.

So, how does one explain Hichilema’s almost apocalyptic portrait of the state of the economy when he came into office?

I think he wanted to justify the mandate that Zambians had given him.

He wanted them to believe that indeed there was work for him, a lot of it for that matter.

He wanted Zambians to believe his predecessor had failed but that he was equal to the task.

As expected, the narrative that has emerged is that ECL left a disastrous economy and that he was a disaster himself.

And that the whole decade of PF in power, especially starting with ECL, was a lost decade.

Hichilema is now being portrayed almost in Messianic terms.

He is portrayed as though he saved Zambia from the edge of a precipice.

His accomplishments  are being portrayed almost a miracle.

But just as the description of the state of the economy that ECL handed over was steeped in partisan politics, the image created of Hichilema is equally steeped in partisan politics.

There is neither substance nor analytical value in both descriptions.

Instead, analytical value lies in numbers. And numbers, like Hichilema would rightly remind us, don’t lie. But people lie.