HH IS HEADED FOR A RESOUNDING VICTORY OPPOSITION IS NOWHERE NEAR READY
Truth Without Fear @TWF
✍️.By Ethan John Nchenje
With just 11 months before the next general elections and only 8 months before Parliament dissolves, Zambia’s opposition remains in complete disarray. No single party or candidate has emerged as a credible challenger to President Hakainde Hichilema (HH) and the UPND Zambia . This is despite growing public frustration over the ruling party’s underwhelming performance in the last four years. The reality is that the opposition is fragmented, directionless, and stuck in endless press briefings and social media rants. Meanwhile, HH is quietly positioning himself for another resounding victory.
In 2021, HH beat #EdgarChagwaLungu (ECL) by more than one million votes a decisive margin. Many among the 1.8 million who voted against HH still believe THE PEOPLE are the main opposition today. But Zambia’s election history shows that defeating an incumbent after one term is rare, if not impossible. Even if every opposition figure Brian Mundubile , Harry Kalaba , #FredM’membe, Kelvin Fube Bwalya – KBF , Miles Sampa , Given Lubinda , Hon Binwell Mpundu NKANA MP , Christopher Kangombe , Emmanuel Mwamba and Kasonde Mwenda C were to unite behind a single candidate today, they could not build the national presence and credibility required to unseat HH within 10 months. Elections are won on the ground, not on Facebook.
The Only Serious Challenger Is Gone
The hard truth is that ECL MHSRIP of the Patriotic Front – PF ,was the only serious challenger who could have matched HH. He had the nationwide recognition, grassroots structures, and political weight to threaten the UPND . That is precisely why HH worked so desperately to block him from the 2026 ballot using #Michelochizombe. Without ECL in the race, the opposition is reduced to political toddlers trying to take on a heavyweight.
Yes no doubt, many Zambians are disappointed in the UPND’s performance. Yes, expectations have not been met. But elections are about numbers and the numbers still favor HH. Out of the 2.8 million who voted for him, even if 500,000 stayed away out of protest, he would still win.
The Two main reasons are;
1. The Power of Incumbency: Across Africa, it is nearly impossible to oust a ruling party after one term. The state machinery, resources, and political visibility of incumbency tilt the odds heavily in HH’s favor.
2. Policy Appreciation: Despite frustrations, many especially in rural parts of ZAMBIA still value policies such as free education, the expanded CDF, and community-based projects. These may not silence critics, but they secure loyalty where it matters most, at the ballot box.
If Zambia’s opposition is serious about democracy, it must stop the childish bickering, endless pressers, and petty propaganda. The time for jokes is over. They must urgently rally behind a single candidate no later than September 30th,2025 and begin a nationwide campaign. Otherwise, their only realistic chance will be 2031 when HH is no longer on the ballot.
The opposition is not just late to the race they are not even in the stadium. HH, despite his failures, is heading for another resounding victory in 2026.
It is time the opposition wakes up to reality: elections are not won by noise, but by strategy, unity, and nationwide presence. Until then, Zambians should brace themselves for HH’s second term.
Ethan John Nchenje is a:
Pan-Africanist, Nationalist, Realist & Theologian. Advocate for good governance and national transformation. Passionate about God, justice, democracy, and the future of Africa.
The Patriotic Front still remains the formidable force which can unseat Mr Hakainde Hichilema and his UPND in the 2026 Presidential and General Elections.
Immediately the party rids itself of Robert Chabinga, and the PF gets back on the Ballot, the UPND can wake up to a rude shock on August 14th, 2026.
Dr Fred Mmembe has failed to penetrate the grassroot…His momentum has waned off.
Harry Kalaba ‘s Citizens First party is like a BID party..He is a paper tiger, and Mr Hakainde Hichilema is not bothered about him. He can even be given permits to hold rallies..The success he had with the Democratic Party hasn’t moved with him to the Citizens First Party.
KBF , Sean Tembo etc are Zeros. No match against Mr Hakainde Hichilema.
Mr Hakainde Hichilema is however beatable in 2026…but it depends on how the Patriotic Front navigates the tough Opposition Political Party waters..The PF grassroot Support and structures are intact, and if it can use a peoples movement platform it can in 24 hours transform the political landscape of Zambia.
Tonse Alliance has problems, and the biggest one is Sean Tembo..I doubt whether these problems will go away.
Looking at time, it will be very difficult to beat HH unless the opposition come up with a formidable candidate who has money, as for MP’s, they will fall like dominoes
So there are people who are thinking of PF winning 2026 general elections?
Am so surprised and perplexed at such thought. They will be very very far. Nearest Presidential Candidate will be about 2million+ votes away from HH…Mark my prophecy.
How i wished i could be asleep and dream like them. Don’t waste your vote you can’t beat “them”, at least not in 2026.
I bet a bullet in my head!
@Mr Crab
No one is talking about Parliamentary Candidates for the UPND on the Copper belt Province.. maybe Mpongwe.
The people being discussed are those aligned with the Patriotic Front.
2026 is not a done deal for the UPND my friend. Yes Cadres are the ones who have been voting in Bye-Elections. A General Election is a different ball game my friend.
But the problem that i have for those who still think PF and it’s late president Lungu aligned supporters and leaders that is still fresh in my mind is or are,
1. How many Zambians were killed and died during gassing. How did happen, who was the master minder, why did PF in power fail to stop this barbaric staged killings. This i sympasize with ordinary noble Zambians who lost a father, a mother, a sister, a niece etc or generally loved ones. For this i can’t make a mistake to have such a leader to lead this Country. NEVER
2. How ECL and his PF made PF cadres so strong where even the POLICE were made to be under their control. This i can’t a mista any mistake under so-whatever to bring such a party or leader to lead to
This Country. NEVER
3. How and why ECL and his PF party could let lose and allow his PF cadres to insult, maime, kill and shoot ordinary Zambians ku KAMUGODI and shoot citizens like Lawrence Banda, Mapenzi Chiwulo, NSAMA NSAMA, Joseph Kaunda ETC !and to them all was okay without considering the families of these gallant Zambians. For this i will never waste my vote on such groupings and it’s leaders who will soon start asking for votes. NEVER.
4. Segregations, tribalism, nepotism and regionalism. This was very ripe in PF and many of it’s top leaderdhip. Talk of Chishimba Kambwili, ECL himself and others. For this i will never give a vote to such a grouping and it’s leaders. NEVER
5. Burning money a legal tender and rampant corruption. For this i will never ever misuse my vote for such a grouping, it’s associate and leaders. NEVER.
So for the above mentioned, me my family and friends will never ever give my and our vote to PF. My vote is for unity, peace, love, free education and development. Epela.
AUTHOR STOP INSULTING ZAMBIANS
What does a Theologian like you know about governance? Absolutely nothing
“Yes no doubt, many Zambians are disappointed in the UPND’s performance”.
People who appreciate what HH has achieved is not you and you have never been.The same people will vote for him massively.
Keep lamenting and dreaming that your corrupt pf will come back.It will never happen. Let’s tell you that we are happy with HH. Stop undermining our government which is working tirelessly for Zambians
“HH, despite his failures, is heading for another resounding victory in 2026”.
Your people who once ruled us at one time defaulted in paying back the money they borrowed which even attracted penalties? Part of this money went in their pockets.
If you call this failure, then you are just an Idiot
-Free education (bursaries) and Meal Allowances for our student
-Debt restructuring and dismantling it by paying back
– Mines pf close are now Opening
-Mulungushi textiles opening
-A plant to produce cheap fertiliser
-Employment of young men and women
-Paying farmers and pensioners on time
-CDF
-No more Hooligans at our bus stations and in our Markets
-No one has been killed under HH by the police apart from 3 illegal miners
Please don’t be an Idiot Respect our government