The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a huge blow to Iran, but it does not automatically produce regime change, nor is it likely to shorten the conflict.
Although Khamenei was a towering figure – Iran’s un-challengeable ruler for the past 37 years – the system of rule is designed to continue functioning after his death.
Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has been governed by Shia religious leaders, and its political and military institutions are structured to protect this form of rule.
A system is in place to appoint a successor to Khamenei, an election by a body of 88 religious figures known as the Assembly of Experts. These clerics are loyal to the regime and will choose someone who will continue Khamenei’s path.
But Iran’s most powerful institution is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), a pervasive, ideological military force whose purpose is to guard Iran’s Islamic system. It is fighting back against the US and Israel and will tolerate no dissent at home.
The IRGC is expected to play a decisive role in shaping the succession – and in ensuring that any new leader protects its interests.