ONLY THE BIGGEST CONSTITUENCIES SHOULD BE DELIMITATED

ONLY THE BIGGEST CONSTITUENCIES SHOULD BE DELIMITATED

By Brian Matambo | Sandton, South Africa

Dear Readers,

Forgive me if I do not extend automatic trust to President Hakainde Hichilema and his administration. He is the one who warned the nation about imingalato. Once people are told that tricks are in play, they would be foolish not to verify every move. So from this end, everything is fact-checked. Quietly. Carefully. Twice.

Come here, beloved. Let us talk about delimitation.

I hear that the Electoral Commission of Zambia intends to create 70 new constituencies. The number itself is not the issue. Seventy can be justified. What cannot be justified is the method being whispered about. The suggestion appears to be that one constituency per district will be selected, as though delimitation were some kind of district participation exercise. That is where the red flags begin to wave.

Delimitation is not a lottery. It is not a distribution of comfort prizes. It is a constitutional instrument designed to correct an imbalance. And imbalance is not measured by geography. It is measured by population.

So let us look at the data.

When we rank Zambia’s constituencies by registered voter totals, the distribution is not emotional. It is numerical. And numbers do not campaign. They do not negotiate. They simply exist.

Here is how the provinces rank by the number of constituencies appearing among the Top 70 largest nationwide:

1. Copperbelt Province: 14 constituencies
2. Eastern Province: 12 constituencies
3. Southern Province: 8 constituencies
4. Lusaka Province: 5 constituencies
5. Northern Province: 5 constituencies
6. Central Province: 4 constituencies
7. Muchinga Province: 3 constituencies
8. North Western Province: 3 constituencies
9. Luapula Province: 2 constituencies
10. Western Province: 1 constituency

Pause there.

If delimitation is about population fairness, then the province with the highest concentration of oversized constituencies must logically receive the highest number of boundary reviews. That means Copperbelt first. Eastern second. Southern third. Not by political colour. By voter weight.

Copperbelt alone accounts for 14 of the 70 largest constituencies. Chingola, Kalulushi, Kwacha, Ndola Central, Chimwemwe and others carry voter loads that dwarf many rural seats.

Eastern Province follows closely with 12 constituencies in the Top 70. Chipata Central exceeds 84,000 voters. Petauke and Chipangali both exceed 70,000. These are not modest administrative units. They are dense parliamentary blocks.

Southern Province has 8 constituencies in the Top 70, including Livingstone and Choma Central, both carrying substantial voter loads. Western Province appears only once in the Top 70. Mongu Central has 53,409 voters. That is the data.

Now the arithmetic question becomes unavoidable. If equity is the objective, why spread delimitation evenly across districts regardless of size? Why give equal restructuring attention to a district with one severely oversized constituency and another with none? That is not proportional reform. That is cosmetic balancing.

Delimitation must correct the imbalance. And imbalance is measured by voter concentration, not district count. If a constituency carries 170,000 voters, that is where the knife must cut first. If another carries 45,000 voters, there is no emergency there.

This is why the method matters more than the announcement. When the ECZ says 70 constituencies will be delimitated, the country must ask: based on what threshold? Based on which population metric? Based on which deviation standard?

Because if the largest constituencies are not prioritised, then the process cannot be defended as population-based. It begins to resemble political choreography.

Now, let us go deeper. The smallest constituency within the Top 70 largest nationwide stands at 44,638 voters. That becomes our benchmark. The floor itself sits inside the “largest” category.

Now compare that to the five biggest constituencies in Zambia:

1. Kanyama, Lusaka Province: 178,424 voters
2. Mandevu, Lusaka Province: 163,011 voters
3. Munali, Lusaka Province: 151,922 voters
4. Matero, Lusaka Province: 142,141 voters
5. Kabwata, Lusaka Province: 109,367 voters

Apply simple arithmetic. If the smallest Top 70 constituency sits at 44,638 voters, then:

• Kanyama would need to be divided approximately 4 times to approach parity.
  178,424 ÷ 44,638 ≈ 4
• Mandevu would need to be divided approximately 4 times.
  163,011 ÷ 44,638 ≈ 3.6
• Munali would need to be divided approximately 3 to 4 times.
  151,922 ÷ 44,638 ≈ 3.4
• Matero would need to be divided approximately 3 times.
  142,141 ÷ 44,638 ≈ 3.1
• Kabwata would need to be divided approximately 2 to 3 times.
  109,367 ÷ 44,638 ≈ 2.4

And since we were warned about imingalato, forgive us for checking the mathematics twice.

Now, because criticism without structure is noise, I took the liberty of preparing a rational delimitation schedule based purely on population parity. If the constitutional mandate is equity, then numbers must lead the procession.

Here is the population-based schedule.

Constituencies to be Delimitated: 48

Split into 6 constituencies each

1. Kanyama → 6 constituencies (≈ 29,737 voters each)
2. Mandevu → 6 constituencies (≈ 27,168 voters each)

Split into 5 constituencies each

3. Munali → 5 constituencies (≈ 30,384 voters each)
4. Matero → 5 constituencies (≈ 28,428 voters each)

Split into 4 constituencies

5. Kabwata → 4 constituencies (≈ 27,342 voters each)

Split into 3 constituencies each

6. Chongwe → 3 constituencies (≈ 31,958 voters each)
7. Lusaka Central → 3 constituencies (≈ 31,324 voters each)
8. Chawama → 3 constituencies (≈ 31,041 voters each)
9. Kapiri Mposhi → 3 constituencies (≈ 30,109 voters each)
10. Chipata Central → 3 constituencies (≈ 28,096 voters each)
11. Solwezi Central → 3 constituencies (≈ 26,908 voters each)

Split into 2 constituencies each

12. Livingstone → 2 constituencies (≈ 39,899 voters each)
13. Malole → 2 constituencies (≈ 39,460 voters each)
14. Kafue → 2 constituencies (≈ 39,406 voters each)
15. Choma Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 38,219 voters each)
16. Mansa Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 37,200 voters each)
17. Nchelenge → 2 constituencies (≈ 36,393 voters each)
18. Chilanga → 2 constituencies (≈ 36,322 voters each)
19. Kasama Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 36,046 voters each)
20. Chipangali → 2 constituencies (≈ 35,090 voters each)
21. Petauke → 2 constituencies (≈ 35,050 voters each)
22. Chingola → 2 constituencies (≈ 34,884 voters each)
23. Lundazi → 2 constituencies (≈ 34,392 voters each)
24. Kabwe Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 33,839 voters each)
25. Lukashya → 2 constituencies (≈ 33,098 voters each)
26. Kalulushi → 2 constituencies (≈ 32,632 voters each)
27. Chienge → 2 constituencies (≈ 32,414 voters each)
28. Nakonde → 2 constituencies (≈ 32,392 voters each)
29. Kwacha → 2 constituencies (≈ 32,256 voters each)
30. Ndola Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 31,734 voters each)
31. Mpika → 2 constituencies (≈ 31,067 voters each)
32. Sinazongwe → 2 constituencies (≈ 30,846 voters each)
33. Chimwemwe → 2 constituencies (≈ 30,284 voters each)
34. Monze Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 29,828 voters each)
35. Mazabuka Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 29,474 voters each)
36. Chasefu → 2 constituencies (≈ 29,423 voters each)
37. Bangweulu → 2 constituencies (≈ 28,930 voters each)
38. Chinsali → 2 constituencies (≈ 28,281 voters each)
39. Mkushi North → 2 constituencies (≈ 28,200 voters each)
40. Mbala → 2 constituencies (≈ 27,678 voters each)
41. Katombola → 2 constituencies (≈ 27,512 voters each)
42. Bwana Mkubwa → 2 constituencies (≈ 27,462 voters each)
43. Chililabombwe → 2 constituencies (≈ 27,438 voters each)
44. Mpulungu → 2 constituencies (≈ 27,366 voters each)
45. Katuba → 2 constituencies (≈ 26,985 voters each)
46. Luanshya → 2 constituencies (≈ 26,930 voters each)
47. Lumezi → 2 constituencies (≈ 26,719 voters each)
48. Mongu Central → 2 constituencies (≈ 26,704 voters each)

That is arithmetic-based delimitation. No guessing. No district tokenism. No cosmetic symmetry. Just population weight. And if equity is truly the mandate, then the largest constituencies must carry the knife first. Anything else, in a nation warned about imingalato, will invite suspicion. And suspicion, especially in an election year, is never a small thing. S