Presidential Re-Run In Sight, An Analysis Of a Divided Opposition After  Edgar Lungu’s Demise

Presidential Re-Run In Sight, An Analysis Of a Divided Opposition After ECL’s Demise

A KBN TV EDITORIAL
This editorial will not necessarily discuss individual political parties, but will focus on groupings such as Tonse Alliance, United Opposition Front and the United Kwacha Alliance.

However, we will briefly touch on parties which presently don’t belong to any of the above named groupings, but have expressed interest to contest the presidential and general elections next year.

First and foremost, we pay tribute to the late sixth Republican President Edgar Chagwa Lungu, who was the Chairperson and candidate for the Tonse Alliance. It’s difficult to discuss Tonse Alliance without making reference to ECL.

When he was taken ill, ECL had an opportunity to name his preferred successor. It is not clear if this was done. Todate, there is no known public record of a written will to indicate who might succeed him.

One school of thought claims that ECL may have been an interested party who hoped to recover from his illness and have a shot at contesting next year’s elections.

To demonstrate this intent, his eligibility case was taken back to the ConCourt to challenge its earlier decision to bar his candidature. Unfortunately, he died on June 5th, 2025.

Following his untimely demise, and in discussing the future of Tonse Alliance, it’s worth noting that “PF” as the anchor party of the Alliance, has a constitution that addresses the succession process in an event its leader dies or resigns.

We must also be alive to the fact that while there is a consent judgment in the fight for PF, which is currently pending court endorsement to revert the party to its original state, technically, however, PF belongs to Robert Chabinga aided by Government conspiracy. It’s in the interest of the ruling party to ensure that the opposition, and PF in particular, remains in disarray.

Therefore, realistically speaking, PF is not the anchor party for Tonse Alliance as doing so brings Chabinga into the picture. Rather, the anchor in Tonse is the Edgar Chagwa Lungu Political Movement, a composition of parties that supported ECL. Even though the movement represents everything PF, the registered entity unfortunately remains outside its span of control.

In discussing the Tonse Alliance further, it’s important to point out that all parties agreed to subordinate themselves to the Alliance and its constitution.

However, crafters of the Tonse Alliance constitution had only ECL in mind. He was the anchor figure that brought them together and they didn’t bargain for how leadership would look like in an event of his unfortunate departure without naming a successor.

ECL was the natural choice to maintain a singular centre of power. This was one of the main reasons parties agreed to have him as both Chairperson and presidential candidate.

With ECL gone, political parties in Tonse Alliance have woken up to the reality that such a clause could have been very short sighted without projecting the future beyond ECL.

Now that ECL is not in the picture, Lubinda, being the PF Vice President, has to tread a delicate balance knowing that Tonse Alliance has a vice Chairperson, Professor Daniel Pule. He can only act as PF President but may not ignore the role of Dr. Pule in the Alliance’s hyrachy.

The question as to whether who leads Tonse extends to the succession process, has also been raised by Miles Sampa, who claims he only endorsed ECL and nobody else.

In this respect, Tonse Alliance partners may seek to establish whether only their constitutions were subordinated to the Alliance’s constitution, while the anchor party can go and choose its succesor who can in turn, come and lead the Alliance into an election next year.

Others within the Alliance argue that the agreement to have a Tonse Alliance Chairperson who is also a presidential candidate was exclusive to ECL alone and the agreement doesn’t extend to the succession process.

It appears that with hindsight, the rest of the Tonse Alliance partners, tied themselves down to what now seems like a raw deal as they seemingly, can’t participate in the selection of the next Alliance leader; they will haver to accept what’s handed down to them by the anchor party.  Whether that’s a process they will accept, is a real test case for unity in Tonse Alliance.

Already, Lubinda is facing two challenges. Internally, there’s a major push for a convention to be held as soon as possible. Some members of the PF Central Committee thinks Lubinda wants to install himself as the next candidate by insinuations of planning to delay the convention to next year.

In Tonse, Lubinda is facing a revolt from the likes of Sean Tembo, who contends that the demise of ECL, changes the spirit of the agreement.

On the other hand, KBF from the Zambia Must Prosper, an alliance member, has indirectly claimed to be the anointed successor, and is likely to put up a spirited fight.

However, the perceived Alliance’s constitutional clause that one should belong to the PF to lead Tonse, may halt his ambitions to lead the Alliance. Whether he will choose to stay or not under such circumstances, only time will tell.

Within the PF, interest to lead has been expressed by Brian Mundubile and others. It’s Mundubile, who seems to be emerging as the preferred candidate among his peers to succeed ECL and lead Tonse Alliance. Should he get nominated, he is likely to face competition from Lubinda, among others.

Meanwhile, the United Opposition Front comprising The Zambia We Want,  Socialist Party and the remnant of UKA, recently planned a retreat where they envisaged to choose a flag bearer.

However, they could not agree on the timeframe and as such, one of the key figures in the group, has threatened to pull out if they don’t elect a candidate sooner than later.

We understand that some members of the the United Opposition Front are also hoping to throw their weight behind Brian Mundubile once the PF has concluded its internal electoral process, much to the displeasure of other members who were hoping to get elected at the retreat.

Elsewhere, you have the Citizens First that has said it’s open to working with likedminded partners but for now, has chosen to focus on grassroots mobilisation as a form of an alliance with real people, the voters.

It’s leader, Harry Kalaba, seems to have struck a cord with traditional churches such as the Catholics, United Church of Zambia and the Reformed Church, who have consistently been inviting him to their various events across the country. These invitations can be viewed both as a subtle campaign strategy to give him enhanced national visibility, but also as a form of endorsement and wider acceptance.

All factors considered, we are likely to see other opposition leaders going it solo into the 2026 general election such as Leadership Movement’s Richard Silumbe, EFF’s Kasonde Mwenda and Binwell Mpundu. All fairly young, the trior are undeniably positioning themselves as critical voices and the future of opposition in Zambia.

Given the permutations above, we predict that the opposition may go into next year’s elections with atleast 3 strong contenders, but they risk splitting the vote that might force a rerun against UPND Alliance candidate, President Hichilema, who may struggle to secure an outright 50 + 1 threshold.

To minimise chances of further splits in the opposition, we recommend a transparent and public driven process of choosing a widely accepted candidate as suggested in our earlier editorial published through the link below:

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