Russia’s evasive comments on the “energy ceasefire” show just how justified Ukrainian concerns were that the US had struck a diesel deal with Russia without getting anything in return.
It is already clear that the agreement to sell diesel to the US is, first and foremost, a symbolic victory for Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president can now claim that he personally helped President Trump at an important moment, while also gaining another opportunity to deepen tensions between Kyiv and Washington.
Russia also has more to gain than the potential revenue from diesel sales. More broadly, Moscow’s war effort is constrained by US intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and by the continued flow of American weapons, even if Europe is now paying for them.
But even if Moscow’s most ambitious hopes do not materialise, the minimum objective has already been achieved: Russia is once again striking deals with the US without any Ukrainian or European involvement, receiving carrots rather than sticks – and without agreeing to any compromises on ending the war.
