🇿🇲 BUSINESS DEBRIEF | Zambia-UAE trade data show $1.2bn gap, with gold accounting for most of the difference
President Hakainde Hichilema has arrived in the United Arab Emirates seeking investment and deeper commercial ties with one of Zambia’s increasingly important economic partners. But behind the expanding relationship sits an unusually large discrepancy in the two countries’ reported trade statistics.
For 2024, Zambia recorded roughly US$400 million of exports to the UAE, while UAE import data put purchases originating from Zambia at about US$1.64 billion. The difference is approximately US$1.24 billion.
Gold accounts for most of the gap. Zambia’s trade statistics record only about US$6.6 million of gold exports to the UAE, while UAE statistics put gold imports from Zambia at approximately US$1.49 billion. On those figures, the difference in gold alone approaches US$1.5 billion.
The pattern is not confined to gold. Zambia recorded approximately US$7.3 million in exports of precious and semi-precious stones to the Emirates, compared with about US$61.7 million recorded by the UAE as imports from Zambia.
Copper produces the opposite result. Zambia reported roughly US$244 million of copper exports to the UAE, while Emirati statistics recorded about US$82 million of copper imports from Zambia. The roughly US$162 million difference in the other direction illustrates why mirror-trade statistics cannot simply be treated as evidence of undeclared exports.
Trade data frequently fail to mirror perfectly. Zambia may record the country to which goods are initially consigned, while the importing country can classify trade according to country of origin. Commodities can also pass through international traders and third-country hubs before reaching their final market. Differences in shipment dates, insurance and freight valuations, re-exports and commodity classifications can further widen the numbers.
The scale of the gold discrepancy nevertheless warrants closer examination. A difference between US$6.6 million and US$1.49 billion is large enough to affect how Zambia understands its commodity flows, export earnings and economic relationship with the UAE. Establishing the explanation requires shipment and customs data rather than inference from headline trade totals.
The issue comes into sharper focus as Hichilema seeks to expand the relationship. The President said before departing that his government wanted to “attract investment and promote private sector-led growth by advancing value addition and industrial development.”
Previous Zambia-UAE engagements have covered mining, energy, agriculture, logistics, financial services and infrastructure, while UAE capital already has a significant presence in Zambia’s mining sector.
For Zambia, the commercial proposition is substantial. The UAE offers deep pools of capital and serves as a major international commodities and trading hub. Zambia offers copper, other minerals, agricultural potential and investment opportunities in energy and infrastructure.
But rapid growth in bilateral commerce makes the quality of the underlying trade statistics more important, not less.
A useful next step would therefore be technical rather than political: reconcile Zambia’s export records against UAE import records commodity by commodity. HS codes, quantities, declared values, dates, countries of consignment and countries of origin would show where the divergence occurs.
The figures do not establish wrongdoing. They establish a discrepancy. And in financial reporting, a US$1.24 billion discrepancy is material enough to require an explanation.
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-The People’s Brief | Francine Lilu