2024 Top 12 most important opposition Leaders in Zambia: A Credibility, Popularity, Institutionalization and Impact Bird View- Chris Zumani

2024 Top 12 most important opposition Leaders in Zambia: A Credibility, Popularity, Institutionalization and Impact Bird View

By Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba

Introduction

Today, l want to offer my expert opinion on what I have termed as “top 12 most important (powerful) opposition leaders in Zambia”.
To arrive at this list, I applied the (1) professional credibility, (2) political popularity, (3) party institutionalization and (4) political impact test model on 27 known opposition leaders in Zambia based on official records and public information. Its an article I have researched for two months.

After critical analysis, the highest to the lowest from 1 to 12 are (1) Dr Edgar Lungu, (2) Dr Fred M’membe, (3) Ms Edith Nawakwi, (4) Mr Sean Tembo, (5) Mr Winter Kabimba, (6) Mr Sakwiba Sikota, (7) Mr Chilufya Tayali, (8) Mr KBF, (9) Dr Dan Pule, (10) Mr Peter Sikamba, (11) Hon Harry Kalaba, and (12) Mr Kasonde Mweenda/ Ms Chishala Kateka. Below are the 12 in chronological order with detailed justification notes:

1. Dr. Edgar Chagwa Lungu

He is the only living and politically active former republican president. He is a distinguished lawyer who has been in active politics since 2000. He saved as MP for Chawama, Deputy Minister at Cabinet Office, Minister of Justice, Minister of Defence and indeed PF Secretary General going into State House. Lungu is the Donald Trump, Rula de Silvia, Nelson Mandela and Paul Kagame of Zambia because he delivered in most key sectors when he rules for 7 years. He is celebrated as “Mr Sonta apowabomba” due visible his infrastructure signature projects across Zambia like Kenneth Kaunda (KK).

He enjoys regional and international influence-strong ties with Russia, China, neighboring countries within SADC and has top notch media magnate second to non. He is respected for conceding electoral defeat to secure peace and graciously handling over power to HH in 2021 even when the ballot smiled multiple malpractices and frauds. Besides HH, ECL is the only one who is “tried, tested and trusted” at presidential level. President HH fears Lungu the most for 2026 than anyone! He is a known household name across Zambia only second to HH.

ECL runs the largest opposition party in Zambia-PF with MP, councilors and party members national wide. Lungu’s PF has an established secretariat with physical office across Zambia. Lungu has available voters in millions, existing campaign materials, songs and funders at home and abroad. ECL has the largest and most powerful political social media page in Zambia where he write policy issues weekly. PF has a function website! ECL scores very high on professional profile, very high on political popularity, very high on party institutionalization and very high on political impact as the only former President!

2. Dr Fred M’membe

He is philosophically grounded, politically opinionated and presents an elegant foot print to the Zambian politics as a veteran journalist, former Post newspaper chief editor and owner. He is vastly and well educated in accountancy, media, legal, economic planning and historical matters. With a PhD, he is the most schooled opposition leader in Zambia today.

He is courageous politician who is highly feared by the state. As his political impact is detected by his high level advocacy messages, most UPND blogs see him as state enemy while state house sponsored media outlets attack him consistently. ‘Big Fred’ as some call him has been arrested multiple times for political charges and still appears in courts today. Dr. M’membe has been consistently active and contested as president in 2021. He seems very focused, serious and determined as his party participates in most bye elections.

He runs a ‘well’ structured and funded Socialist Party (SP) with a pool of full time staff, physical offices and defined policy objectives and clear campaign manifesto that is ideologically different from the rest. He is consistent in proving checks and balances through weekly articles, policy opinions and political commentaries on social media, TV, newspaper, etc. He has regional and global political associates in China, Cuba, Russia, Venezuela, South Africa, etc and is respected as such. SP has a functional and active website! He ranks between high and above average on all four pillars under review.

3. Madam Edith Zewelani Nawakwi

She is schooled in Agricultural Economics and Economics of Energy and Development at degree and post graduate level. She is a veteran political machine who dawned Zambian politics and is former Member of Parliament for Nakonde Constituency under MMD and former Member of Parliament for Munali Constituency under FDD. She served as Minister of Energy & Water Development, Minister of Agriculture, Food & Fisheries and Minister of Labour & Social Security. In 1998, Nawakwi was appointed the first Minister of Finance in Zambia and the SADC region by President FTJ Chiluba.

In 2001, she was instrumental in the formation of FDD under Christon Tembo. Since 2005, she has been president of FDD and she remains the first woman to lead an opposition party in Zambia and Southern Africa. In 2006, she formed the UDA alliance with HH’s UPND and Tilyenji Kaunda’s UNIP were Bally contested for the first time as president. Although among them Nawakwi was the most experienced politician and leader, she had grace to front HH. In 2011 and 2015, Nawakwi contested as FDD presidential candidate and came out seventh and third respectively.

By not contesting in 2016 and 2021, Nawakwi took away more from her profile and FDD politically. However, the fact remains that, she is only second to Lungu in terms of government experience and opposition politics. In addition, she is fearless and easily provokes government for political arrests and court litigations like many male politicians. Since 2001, FDD has retained physical offices and some active staff, volunteers. As of June, 2024, there was no active website for FDD! She has a very high professional profile, above average political popularity, average party institutionalization and high political impact as a person!

4. Mr Sean Tembo

Purely youthful and vibrant, Tembo is schooled
in accountancy and Business Administration at bachelors and masters levels respectively. As the founder of Enosyst Associates an audit & business advisory services firm, he is a consultant who trades in Zambia and neighboring countries. In addition, he also served as Assistant Superintendent of the Zambia Police Service at some point.

Among his ever increasing followers, Tembo is openly recognized as the “most intelligent” and “solo think tank” opposition leader in Zambia by how he writes and articulates national and policy issues. He can engage at all levels of politics with eloquence, courage, grace and enthusiasm. His social media presence is consistently growing with sundry political commentaries as he is vastly versatile! He is feared by the state and has suffered multiple arrests. At court, he litigates against government on his own on many policy issues!

In 2016, Tembo led a group of 10 Zambians to create the Patriots for Economic Progress (PeP ) with the basis of four key principles of Patriotism, Accountability, Competence and Courage.In 2021, he participated in the presidential elections for the first time and got a total of 1,813 votes representing 0.04%. He has physical offices, branded utility vehicles and a pool of staff/volunteers.

Tembo is the only opposition political leader who consistently and continuously develops and presents an annual PeP Alternative National Budgets for the years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, to 2024. In November, Tembo released PEP alternative 2024 national budget, proposing to spend a total of over K183.4 billion for the fiscal year. Like PF and SP, PEP has a well organized and active website. All these basic details of institutionalization sets Tembo apart and among few above!
He has a high profile, average political popularity, high party institutionalization and high political impact as a person too.

5. Mr. Winter Kabimba

He is a fearless lawyer and politician. Kabimba has vast knowledge and experience in local government services as he served for 15 years and rose to the position of Town Clerk at Lusaka city council. He worked very closely with Michael Sata as his legal advisor when he was District Governor for Lusaka and later when he was Minister of Local Government and Housing.
He was the most instrumental figure after joining Sata as his SG in 2008 to spreading party structures countrywide before 2011.

As PF SG and Micheal Sata’s right Handman, Winter proved to b a veteran politician who contributed highly in dislodging and defeating MMD and Rupiah Banda in 2011 to put Sata into State House. He was President Sata’s powerful SG who he later appointed as Minister of Justice and even acted as Republican President in some cases. This makes Kabimba highly distinguished politically too! Kabimba is among few Zambian politicians with full knowledge and physical touch of all corners of the country.

In 2014 when he was deemed as Sata’s first choice successor, Kabimba was unceremoniously dismissed as party SG as well as Justice Minister. In 2016, he founded Rainbow Party in ‘partnership’ with Fred M’membe. Later, the two split in 2018 and Winter Kabimba formed Economic Front ( EF). Some see him as a kingmaker and not a king himself.

Overall, Winter has very high professional credibility, average political popularity and low party institutionalization. In addition, Kabimba’s political impact is low as the oppressive ruling party does not see him a threat nor target him for political arrests and litigations. The search for Economic Front website proved futile!
Overall, Mr. Kabimba ranks very high on professional profile, average political popularity, average party institutionalization and average on political impact.

6. Mr. Sakwiba Sikota

The status of state counsel is not a mere decorum on him. He is a respected lawyer above the shoulders of many legal professionals in Zambia today. He is truly learned and experienced in legal matters with an empirical profile. He is regarded among the best lawyers in the country.

Politically, he is a veteran who has been a parliamentarian twice on UPND as well as his own political party-ULP. He is one key founding member of UPND and served its Vice President for a long time under Anderson Mazoka. He acted as UPND President for nine to ten months before Mazoka’s death.

Had it not been for political tribalism in 2006-flagged as Chuundu Chaitwa and “only a Tonga can succeed a Tonga”, Sikota would have replaced Mazoka and could have been a possible Republican President today. After leaving UPND following their tribal politics and regional discrimination, he formed the United liberal Party (ULP) in 2006 and contested in Livingstone where he won as its MP plus two more parliamentary seats.

In 2008 presidential by elections and in 2011 presidential elections, Sikota and his ULP supported the Movement for Multiparty Democracy and President Rupiah Banda. Eventually, Rupiah Banda and ULP lost together.
For whatever reasons, he was seen to have gone on political sabbatical and lost grounds with many citizens. He is back in active politics and currently leading the United Kwacha Alliance as its chairman. ULP does not have known secretariat or website

Overall, he scores very high on professional profile, average on political popularity, below average on party institutionalization as well as average on political impact. Since joining and leading UKA, he is deemed as a state enemy too but they don’t have political charges for him yet.

7. Mr. Chilufya Tayali

Tayali is a youthful Zambian civil and political activist both under MMD, PF and UPND governments. He founded Economic and Equity Party (EEP) in 2018 and became its president. In 2021, president Tayali filed and contested as Lusaka Mayor and lost. Practically, he is a solo politician, like a phantom soldier who fights dangerous wars alone.

He does not have a sophisticated political institution except his phones, apartment and other media gadgets sitted in a political war room. From his base, he aggressively, brutally and effectively checks and balances for the government of the day. His social media punch in terms of views, shares, comments and followers is decisively huge and surely awkward for his opponents-Community House for now.

Tayali is fearlessly brutal and does not take his political advocacy for lukewarm discourse! His mouth and choice of words is his brazing and fearsome political institution that makes sitting government run for their votes. Tayali’s imposition of political narratives and policy awareness is miraculously dangerous and numerically big. Facing him alone may be equivalent to fighting a resemblance of a mini coalition!

He dawns himself as “a public lawyer” and is seem to be living accordingly to his reputation. He is currently multiple political charges and court appearances as he is deemed as one of the worst political enemies of the UPND government and President HH. He is on self exile out of Zambia as a “political asylum seeker” overseas since tormented State House want him dead or alive!

Overall, Tayali scores average on professional profile, above average on political popularity, below average on party institutionalization but very high on political impact as a person!

8. Mr. KBF-Kelvin Bwalya Fube

He is a regarded as Prominent Zambian Lawyer, kingmaker, Politician, Author, Political Strategist and Media personality. Closely associated with PF, he served as Deputy Chairperson for Elections for the ruling Patriotic Front Party (PF) and is said to have contributed significantly to the elections of both the late President Michael Chilufya Sata in 2011 as well as former President Edgar Lungu in 2015 and 2016. As someone who was never appointed into the PF government, he left and engaged more as a political strategist and advocate.

In 2021, he partnered with other opposition leaders to fight ‘his PF government and Lungu’ by promoting HH in the UPND alliance. Unfortunately for him, when HH formed government, KFB was again sidelined for the third time. What is crucially important for KBF is that, he is the only politician today in Zambia with a known legacy of having helped different leaders to become Republican Presidents-it’s a huge political achievement for anyone!

In August 2022, KBF publicly launched an agenda called ‘Zambia Must Prosper’ alongside a book by the same title. He is articulate and fearless too and is the only politician who has a personal website! However, he scores very high mainly on professional profile as he is average on political popularity. In like manner, Mr Fube is below average on party institutionalization and merely average on political impact especially that the state does not treat him as a political threat. He is not politically targeted by state house and plays armchair opposition politics like a scholar!

9. Dr Danny Pule

He is a public figure widely known in political and religious circles in Zambia. Politically, he was MP for Bangweulu under MMD from 1996 to 2001 and served as Chiluba’s Deputy Minister of Science and Technology. In 2004, Pule resigned from then ruling MMD under Levy Mwanawasa and became a founder member the newly Party for Unity, Democracy and Development (PUDD).
In Christian cycles, Dr. Pule is the founder of Dunamis Bible Church and is among the few known televangelists in Zambia.

In 2013, he formed and registered the Christian Democratic Party (CDP) and became its leader.
In the same year, Apostle Pule formed a parallel church umbrella body known as the Apostolic Prophetic Network (APN) with a team of other preachers. Available data show that Dr. Pule has consistently been a member of the “PF Alliance” and openly supported President Lungu in 2015, 2016, and 2021 presidential elections, hence not contesting himself.

He runs both his party and church at a mega complex in Lusaka-Dunamis Christian Centre boasting of a secretariat, utility vehicles, some volunteers and media tools owing to the church. But his party has no website too! He has vast understanding and practical experience of Zambian politics from a cabinet minister as well as opposition leader as someone who has been in active politics since early 1990s. Overall, Dr Pule score high on personal profile, his is average on political popularity, average on party institutionalization but above average on political impact since he is treated as state enemy with political arrests and court appearances.

10. Peter Sikamba

He is a Copperbelt based businessman and veteran Zambian politician since early 1990s.
As a student unionist and youth activist, he was expelled from University and officially banned. He decided to become an entrepreneur by exporting maize to the Congo. Within five years of his expulsion, he became a successful self-made millionaire earning the title ‘Playboy Millionaire’.

In 1991, Sikamba became the Deputy Secretary General for the National Democratic Alliance (NADA) and later the Secretary General of the National Conservative Party (NCP). He has been in politics than many politicians in Zambia today. From 1993 to 1994, he served on the Mwanakatwe Constitutional Review Commission rendering his technical services to the nation. In 1997, Sinkamba founded Citizens for a Better Environment (CBE). In 2004, Sinkamba became the first Zambian to be elected as an Ashoka Fellow. Ashoka is a global association of leading social entrepreneurs.

By 2013, he founded the Green Party. His party is popularly known for proposing that Zambia must legalize marijuana in order to diversity its economy and invest more revenue for national development and prosperity of citizens. He is ideologically strong and articulate national matters with both clarity and simplicity. He trades his politics more around political advocacy as well as contrastive criticism of the sitting government.

Mr Sikamba has contested twice as Green Party candidate- in 2015 and 2016 presidential elections respectively. In both elections, Sinkamba earned 1,410 and 4,515 votes respectively. In his shadow budget released in 2014, Sikamba’s Green Party claimed marijuana exports would boost GDP by over 68% by 2021 and thereby reducing dependence on copper. He trades his politics with a secretariat in Kitwe. By June 2024, the Green Party Zambia did not show any active website!

Overall, he scores high on personal profile as he is a veteran politician; he is average political popularity-mainly known for his marijuana legalization campaign. He is average on party institutionalization as well as average on political impact as he is deemed nether a threat nor an ally of the UPND oppressive government.

11. Harry Kalaba

Harry Kalaba is a known Zambian politician who was previously associated with PF. He was PF member of parliament for Bahati between 2011 and 2019. Under President Sata as well as Lungu, he served as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2014 to 2018 when he voluntarily resigned.
He joined Democratic Party (DP) in 2019 where he contested the 2021 presidential elections and came out third with 24,879 total votes against HH and Lungu who polled above 2.8 and 1.8 million respectively.

In July 2022, DP disowned Kalaba forcing to form Citizens First Party CF) in October the same year where he is the current president. Within 4 years, Mr. Kalaba changed three parties-PF, DP and CF. He has physical offices but with no official website like many parties. He told News Diggers in Solwezi last week that “I lost the 2021 general elections because my party did not have structures”. He faces the same problem today but vigorously mobilizing them countrywide.

Overall, Kalaba scores above average on professional profile as he is not distinguished or celebrated with a flagship career outside politics. On political popularity, the score is above average just like his party institutionalization. In addition, he is not seen as political threat by the ruling party nor being viciously targeted by UPND and thereby creating doubts. This makes his political impact to score below average especially that he lacks policy and ideological depth in his political messaging.

12. Mr. Kasonde Mwenda/Madam Chishala Kateka

The political respect is adorned more around her personality demeanor and not experience!
Ms Chishala Kateka is a Zambian Economist and Fellow Chartered Accountant who is distinguished in her career at national and regional level. At some point, she was board chairperson of Barclays Bank and Competition Commission becoming the first female Zambian to lead the two Boards- a rare career record!

She joined active politics in 2020 by taking over and becoming the leader of the New Heritage Party previously led by Gen. Godfrey Miyanda.
In 2021, she contested in the national election as a presidential candidate but lost to HH like many others. Her party has a functional secretariat with staff/volunteers. However, they don’t have a functional website like many.

Overall, she scores high on personal profile, average on political popularity, average on party institutionalization and below average on political impact as a ‘new’ politician! She is not yet treated or seamed as a political threat by Community House.

To the contrary, Kasonde Mweenda pushes high scores on political impact-he is consistently writing and talking with well thought policy and advocacy messages. He is a well trained and commands respects among his professional peers. Mwenda is the president of the Economic Freedom Fighters party in Zambia as well as a registered consultant Architect, building inspector and author. He is a receipient of the “Heroes Among Us” award by MTN Zambia and a celebrated leader who believesin youth empowerment.

He is perceived as a threat to the UPND government due to his name and shame policy campaigns. Overall, he is above average on personal profile, low on political popularity, average on party institutionalization, above average on political impact and thereby making his overall score to square with Madam Kateka.

Dr Chris ZUMANI Zimba is a Political Scientist, Researcher, Author & Consultant specialized in Comparative Global Governance and Democratic Theories. He holds a PhD, MA, BA and Cert in Political Science. Zimba was President Lungu’s Political Advisor from December 2019 to August 2021. By philosophical approach, Dr. Zimba is a Pan Africanist as well as Afro-Christian by religion.
Email:chriszumaniZimba.cz@gmail.com