Former finance minister Dr Katele Kalumba believes President Hakainde Hichilema remains politically ahead heading into the August 13 general election, but says the environment around the race is becoming far more competitive than many initially expected.
Kalumba says the UPND continues benefiting from the major advantages that come with incumbency, including visibility, organisation and the ability to campaign using government projects and economic recovery messaging. Those advantages remain important for the ruling party as the campaign season intensifies across the country.
The cost of living remains one of the opposition’s strongest political weapons as many households continue struggling with food prices, unemployment and broader economic hardship despite improvements in national economic indicators. Debt restructuring progress, mining investment and infrastructure development remain central parts of the government’s message to voters.
Opposition figures, however, continue focusing on the widening gap between economic statistics and what ordinary citizens are experiencing daily inside homes and communities. That economic frustration is keeping the election politically alive and preventing the race from becoming comfortable for the ruling party.
The campaign atmosphere has also become more politically charged in recent weeks.
The detention of PF faction secretary general Raphael Nakacinda has evolved into a major opposition mobilisation issue after Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu were denied entry to Lusaka Central Correctional Facility during Africa Freedom Day commemorations. That prison confrontation delivered the opposition a politically emotional moment capable of rallying fragmented anti-government sentiment.
Meanwhile, former minister Garry Nkombo’s independent candidacy in Mazabuka Central continues creating complications for the ruling party following violence linked to his nomination filing. Independent candidates emerging from within the ruling party create difficult political calculations, particularly in tightly contested constituencies.
The UPND still holds the advantage heading into the election period. But the political environment is no longer as comfortable or predictable as it may have appeared months earlier. The next stage of the campaign will depend heavily on whether opposition alliances can convert public frustration into organised electoral pressure capable of influencing results.