FILI UKO TULEYA KAPONYANOMICS TO DISCIPLINED LEADERSHIP: 4 YEARS OF MOVING FROM REVERSE GEAR TO FORWARD MOTION AND WHY ECONOMIC GROWTH MATTERS
Sometimes economic figures sound too technical, too distant, and too complicated and yet they affect our daily lives more than we realise.
In 2021, Zambia’s economy had contracted by about -2%. In simple language, the country was moving backwards. Today, projections point to growth of around 6.5% by 2026/27. Many people hear these numbers and ask, “What does that actually mean for ordinary Zambians?”
Let us simplify it. Imagine a farmer who harvested 100 bags of maize last year. The following year, due to drought, poor planning, or lack of fertilizer, he harvests only 98 bags. That is negative growth. He is producing less than before. He is moving backwards. This is what they meant by dunuma reverse. Their own prophecy came to pass.
Now imagine that same farmer improves his methods, gains access to inputs, receives support, and the rains improve. Instead of 98 bags, he now harvests 106 or 107 bags. That is positive growth. He is producing more. He is moving forward. This is what President Hakainde Hichilema meant by “Methodical Approach”.
The economy works in exactly the same way. A country with negative growth is producing fewer goods and services, attracting less investment, creating fewer jobs, collecting less tax revenue, and offering fewer opportunities.
A country with strong positive growth is producing more, attracting more investment, creating more jobs, expanding businesses, and generating more opportunities for its citizens.
Think of it this way. If a bus is rolling backwards down a hill, the first challenge is not speed. The first challenge is stopping the backward movement. Only after stabilising the bus can the driver begin moving forward. That is where Zambia was.
The first task was not rapid prosperity and filling all the promises. The first task was economic stabilisation. Debt restructuring. Restoring investor confidence. Rebuilding foreign exchange reserves. Reducing inflation. Strengthening agriculture. Increasing electricity generation. Improving fiscal discipline. These are not glamorous achievements, but they are the foundations upon which growth is built.
A house cannot be built from the roof downward. It starts with the foundation.
A projected growth rate of 6.5% is significant because it means the economy is not merely surviving. It is expanding. Factories can expand. Mines can invest. Farmers can produce more. Banks can lend more. Government can collect more revenue. Businesses can hire more workers. Young people can find more opportunities.
Will every family immediately feel the benefits? No.
Economic growth begins at the national level before it reaches every household. The same way a tree first develops roots before producing fruit, an economy first strengthens its foundations before citizens fully experience the benefits, but without growth, there can be no sustainable improvement in living standards. No country has ever created prosperity while its economy was shrinking.
Moving from approximately -2% contraction to around 6.5% growth is not a small achievement. It means Zambia has moved from reverse gear toward forward motion. The task now is to ensure that this growth translates into more jobs, lower poverty, greater productivity, stronger businesses, and better living standards for every citizen.
The journey is not complete, but it is difficult to deny that the direction of travel matters, and moving forward is always better than moving backward.
Zambia Forward, Together.
Saviour Chishimba
President
United Progressive People (UPP)
UPND Alliance Partner