EDITORIAL | UPND Shouldn’t Laugh Too Early

🇿🇲 EDITORIAL | UPND Shouldn’t Laugh Too Early

There is a growing tendency among sections of the ruling party and its supporters to dismiss Brian Mundubile and the Tonse Alliance as little more than a political sideshow. The argument is usually straightforward. Mundubile is a first-time presidential candidate. Some of his campaign promises appear difficult to finance. His understanding of certain economic issues has been challenged publicly by government officials and economists. Therefore, the conclusion goes, he does not represent a serious threat.

Politics, however, has a habit of punishing those who mistake criticism for immunity.

The issue is not whether Brian Mundubile possesses the experience, policy depth or economic credentials of a sitting president. The issue is whether the political forces gathering around him are capable of creating a competitive electoral challenge. Those are two very different questions. A candidate may have weaknesses while still benefiting from powerful political currents beyond his own personal strengths.

What has become evident over the past several weeks is that the Tonse Alliance is not operating as a completely new political movement. It is increasingly functioning as a rallying point for significant sections of the former Patriotic Front political ecosystem. The rallies on the Copperbelt, in Central Province and parts of Eastern Province have demonstrated something important. The organisational networks, local influencers, former cadres, campaign mobilisers and loyal support structures that once powered the PF have not entirely disappeared. They have simply been looking for a political vehicle capable of bringing them together again.

This does not automatically translate into electoral victory. It does, however, mean the phenomenon deserves serious attention.

Many within the UPND understandably point to achievements recorded since 2021. They cite debt restructuring, free education, expanded Constituency Development Fund allocations, civil service recruitment, increased mining investment and improvements in several macroeconomic indicators. Those achievements form a legitimate basis upon which the ruling party can seek re-election. Yet history repeatedly shows that incumbents often become vulnerable when they begin to believe their achievements alone will carry them across the finish line.

Elections are not academic exercises. They are political contests involving emotion, identity, memory, loyalty and perception. Voters do not always behave the way economists, political scientists or editorial writers expect them to behave. Many do not read manifestos. Many do not analyse fiscal frameworks. Many do not compare policy documents line by line. Some vote based on community loyalties. Others vote based on personalities. Others vote because they feel angry, excluded or nostalgic about a previous political era.

Whether one agrees with that behaviour is irrelevant. It exists.

The PF itself rose to power by harnessing emotions that many political observers underestimated at the time. Michael Sata was frequently dismissed by opponents who believed his popularity could never translate into national victory. They were wrong. Across Africa and beyond, political history contains numerous examples where established political actors underestimated movements they considered too emotional, too disorganised or too inexperienced to win. The lesson is not that such movements always succeed. The lesson is that they become dangerous when their opponents stop taking them seriously.

The crowds currently appearing at Tonse Alliance rallies should therefore not be viewed through a lens of panic or ridicule. They should be viewed through a lens of political realism. The question is not whether every person attending those rallies understands the details of Mundubile’s economic proposals. The question is why those crowds continue growing despite the criticisms being directed at the opposition. Political momentum rarely emerges without underlying grievances, loyalties or aspirations driving it.

This is particularly important in provinces where the PF historically enjoyed significant support. Eastern Province, the Copperbelt, Muchinga, Northern and Luapula remain regions where political identity and historical loyalties continue to shape electoral behaviour. While many former PF leaders have since joined the UPND and others have retired from active politics, it would be premature to assume that entire voter blocs have become permanently unavailable to opposition mobilisation efforts. Politics is rarely that static.

The UPND enters this election with considerable advantages. It remains the governing party. It possesses superior national structures. It has resources, incumbency and a record upon which to campaign. None of those advantages should be underestimated. At the same time, none of them should create complacency. Elections are won by organisation, discipline and voter turnout. They are lost when parties become convinced that victory is inevitable.

Perhaps the greatest mistake the ruling party could make at this stage is confusing weaknesses in the opposition’s policy platform with weaknesses in its political appeal. The two are not always the same. A candidate can be criticised by economists and still attract voters. A manifesto can contain gaps and still inspire enthusiasm. A movement can lack policy sophistication and still generate electoral energy.

The UPND has every reason to be confident. It has no reason to be comfortable.

Because beneath the songs, the slogans and the social media excitement sits a political reality that should not be ignored: significant sections of the political machinery that once sustained the Patriotic Front are attempting to reorganise themselves under a new banner. Whether they succeed remains uncertain. What is no longer uncertain is that they are trying.

Serious political parties do not laugh at such developments.

They prepare for them.

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© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu