Ukraine Warns Russia Could Launch Northern Offensive in February 2027
Russia could be capable of launching a new offensive in northern Ukraine as early as February 2027 if Moscow decides to carry out another large-scale mobilization, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said the conditions for such an operation have not yet been established, but could emerge following a potential Russian mobilization after the country’s September 2026 parliamentary elections.
According to Skibitskyi, a new mobilization would allow Moscow to gradually build up a substantial force for future operations. Drawing on the experience of Russia’s 2022 mobilization, he said that several months would likely be required to recruit, train and organize newly formed units before they could be committed to a major offensive.
Ukrainian intelligence also believes that a large-scale mobilization would be difficult for Russia to conceal. Increased troop movements, training activity and the formation of new military units would provide Kyiv with indicators of preparations well in advance.
The assessment does not mean that Russia has decided to launch an offensive in February. Rather, Ukrainian intelligence is warning that a new mobilization could create the manpower conditions necessary for a major operation in northern Ukraine by early 2027.