A PEEK AT THE 2021 ELECTION; DEEP INTO THE ART OF POLITICS
By David Kapoma
In only a few days from now, Zambia shall decide who takes over the stuff of authority as 7th President in what is seen to be one of the most exciting election in the history of our country. Many opinions have been advanced by individuals and organizations with keen interest in politics and elections. Even though the opinions are not exactly the same, what most of them seem to agree is that this election like the previous one is a head on battle between two giants the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND). It is clear the stakes are very high this election being a do or die battle for both PF and UPND.
Before I get deep into my argument, let me be quick to mention that this piece of opinion I write today is purely based on my personal understanding of the current political mood in the country. Also important to note is the fact that I do not write from the comfort of my sofa but that I draw a lot of authority to this opinion from my travels around the country in the last four (4) months. Even as I find this time to put my thoughts together I do so under a tree in some village.
In coming up with this judgment, I have also looked at statistical data and evidence from election results from as way back as 2001 when late President Levy Mwanawasa beat the late Anderson Mazoka with only 2% difference at 29% and 27% respectively. I have also looked at voting panaches from province to province.
To kick start the argument, I want to suggest with no doubt that this election shall be decided by the people of Lusaka and the Copperbelt provinces. The party that shall claim control of the two (2) provinces will most likely carry the day.
THE CAMPAIGNS
It is clear that the patriotic front has done more in terms of campaigns compared to the other political parties. This is evident from the latest voter register which favors the Patriotic front. The Patriotic front has gained more than 400,000 numbers in the new voter register in their strongholds compared to the UPND which has lost close to 100,000 votes in their strongholds. This scientifically puts a 500,000 gap between the PF and UPND even before the voting is done. It can be argued therefore that the PF well calculated their plan at voter registration stage.
It is also known that the PF adopted a strategy of making the rural areas their strongholds by way of strengthening the relationship between President Lungu and the chiefs and also providing empowerment program for the youth and women in the rural areas. The PF also increased the number of beneficiaries on the social cash transfer program which seemed to have worked in their favor. It is important to note that rural politics are very different from urban politics. In the rural area people vote for what they see.
The don’t use emotions like the voters in urban areas.
One of the mistakes the UPND made is their inability to make the UPND leader available in the rural parts of the country. While candidates like Fred M’membe and Harry Kalaba trekked the country, HH was still trying to figure out how to escape police until time was up. This can never be used as an excuse for losing elections by the way. Every opposition leader gets blocked somehow. I experienced it many times when I traveled around the country with Elias Chipimo. At one point cadres almost killed us inside Radio Mano in Kasama.
The PF campaigners went in the villages and camped there quietly leaving the opposition fighting the police in Lusaka.
Overall it can be argued that the PF put up the best campaign not because they are the most tactical but because they enjoy the power of incumbency, the freedom to move around and also the much needed resource to touch every corner of the country.
I have also noted people suggesting that UPND has entered the strongholds of the PF going by the number of cadres that mob HH and team when they visit places known to be PF strongholds. Let it be known that the number of people that mob a politician can never be converted to votes. The same people that show up when HH comes and the same one that show up when ECL shows up. Those are opportunist who want to feed from the mouth of politicians. Therefore when one is being mobbed it does not mean they are popular.
OUR POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY
It is a no doubt that the UPND remains in control of Southern, Western, North Western and some parts of Central Province. The PF on the other hand are still in control of Eastern, Lusaka, Copperbelt, Muchinga, Northern and Luapula provinces. I know some people believe that Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces have shifted to becoming opposition strongholds. While! this argument is not backed by statistical evidence. The law of progression does not agree that the UPND for example would sidestep the PF in the Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces. The difference in numbers between the PF and UPND in the last election was 155,713 for the Copperbelt and 133,588 for Lusaka province. I argue that these figures are likely going to slightly widen in the 2021 election in Lusaka and reduce slightly on the copperbelt to give UPND an advantage.
The UPND will also gain some numbers in, Eastern, Northern and Muchinga provinces but not to the extent of being deciding numbers for the election. Luapula province is likely going to remain predominantly PF with a good number of votes going to the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party.
The PF will gain some margins in North Western Province owing to the developmental projects in the area and the defection of some strong UPND senior members who understand the province well.
On this same argument it must be interesting to remember that this year’s election shall be decided in 8 provinces. This is simply because the Eastern and Southern Provinces shall cancel each other in terms of numbers.
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
So far three opinion polls if not more have been conducted by different institutions and opinion makers. All of then indicate that Edgar Lungu and the PF shall carry the day. Strange enough, most of these opinion polls indicate that the PF shall win the elections by more than 55% and above. This figure I do not agree with as I believe that the election shall be too tight for any candidate to get more than 55% votes. What I do agree with however is that putting all factors and indicators together, Edgar Lungu is likely to carry the day going by what I have briefly explained above.
Also important to note is that the only way Edgar Lungu can lose the election is if civil servants across the country reject him in huge number. But again HH has not yet given a convincing promise to them which is good enough to make him a darling of the civil service. HH therefore would be banking on the support of the new young voters on the register.
STATISTICAL ARGUMENT
Earlier above I indicated that at the start of elections the PF shall at bare minimum be more than 400,000 votes ahead of everyone. This means that the UPND would have to figure out how to break this difference which the PF gained at registration stage. We must also remember that the PF in 2016 won with just above 130,000 votes and this is why they realized they had to increase their numbers in their strongholds and so they did.
It is highly unlikely therefore, that the UPND can outstrip the PF in both Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces. The difference as demonstrated above is too big to be overturned in one election.
While it is a fact that PF has lost some support in Lusaka and Copperbelt, it is dangerous to ignore that the party has also increased some numbers in some UPND strongholds.
The attached distribution of votes is not reflective of real numbers but represent the possible outcome of elections. I bet! The numbers won’t be too different from this.
MY OREDICTION OF RESULTS
I predict victory for Edgar Lungu at between 52% and 54% followed by Hakainde Hichilema at between 41% and 45%. I further predict that the other candidates shall share between 3% and 5% of the total votes cast. The voter turnout is expected to stand between 66% and 70%. It is also likely that Fred M’membe would come out in 3rd place, Harry Kalaba 4th and my good friend Andyford Banda in 5th place while the others candidates shall come after that with very small numbers.
CONCLUSION
As stated in my preamble, this is nothing but my personal prediction and analysis of the 2021 elections and therefore with no shame I could be wrong. We must note also that the outcome of this year’s election does not make the other candidates on the ballot unlikeable but that this election is about ‘Change’ or ‘Continuity’.
When all is said and done, our lives must continue with whichever candidate wins the election. We will have to accept the will of the people and move forward as one people. Every election can only have one winner and many losers. Therefore losers should be quick to accept defeat and move on. Let us always remember to maintain the peace we have always enjoyed as a people and protect one another as we help law enforcement agencies to maintain law and order.
I rest my case.
God bless Zambia as we go to cast our votes on Thursday August 12, 2021.