ANALYSIS | Chawama By-Election: What the Numbers Say About Unity, Grief Politics, and a Changing Battlefield

 ANALYSIS | Chawama By-Election: What the Numbers Say About Unity, Grief Politics, and a Changing Battlefield

The Chawama parliamentary by-election outcome offers a rare, data-rich snapshot of Zambia’s opposition politics at a moment of transition. The result was narrow but decisive. Forum for Democracy and Development candidate Bright Nundwe polled 8,085 votes, edging United Party for National Development’s Morgan Muunda who secured 6,542 votes. Beyond the headline, the numbers tell a deeper political story.

First, the arithmetic is impossible to ignore. When opposition votes are aggregated across parties aligned or sympathetic to the Tonse axis and the former Patriotic Front base, the combined tally significantly outpaces UPND. Citizens First alone secured 1,534 votes, while smaller parties and independents added several hundred more. In raw electoral terms, fragmentation nearly cost the opposition a larger margin. Unity did not just help. It proved decisive.

Second, Chawama remains structurally and emotionally shaped by its history as a Patriotic Front stronghold. This is not simply a matter of party colours. It is about memory, identity, and loyalty. Edgar Chagwa Lungu lived here. He built his political base here. His death and the unresolved burial have turned Chawama into a symbolic constituency. Campaign messaging from PF-aligned actors and Tonse Alliance surrogates leaned heavily into this grief narrative, framing the by-election as a referendum on respect, dignity, and legacy rather than policy delivery.

This messaging worked.

The Tonse Alliance and PF-backed campaign succeeded in converting emotional continuity into electoral mobilisation. In a low-turnout by-election, emotional intensity matters. The rains on Friday early morning hours may have emptied the streets, but the result had already been sealed hours earlier by voters who were motivated less by future promises and more by unfinished mourning.

Third, UPND’s performance should not be misread as a collapse. On the contrary, 6,542 votes in Chawama represents a substantial advance for a party that historically struggled in PF urban bastions. The ruling party ran a disciplined campaign, enjoyed visible defections, and maintained organisational superiority. It closed the gap in a constituency once considered unreachable. That is not a loss without lessons.

UPND is slowly converting state performance, social protection messaging, and incumbency into urban traction. But Chawama shows the limit of technocratic governance when confronted with identity-driven politics. Development statistics struggled against grief symbolism. Social cash transfer figures struggled against memory.

Fourth, the by-election reinforces a broader opposition lesson ahead of 2026. Disunity is expensive. Had Citizens First and smaller parties coordinated formally with FDD, the victory margin would have been wider and the narrative clearer. Instead, the opposition won despite itself. The result strengthens the argument that a united opposition front is not just strategic but necessary.

Finally, Chawama confirms that PF’s electoral relevance has shifted from organisational strength to symbolic capital. The party machinery is weakened. Legal authority is fragmented. But the Lungu name, story, and unresolved burial remain potent political assets. As long as that chapter remains open, PF-aligned messaging will continue to resonate in constituencies like Chawama.

Summarily, Chawama was not just a by-election. It was a stress test. Unity passed. Fragmentation failed. Grief mobilised. And UPND learned that closing the gap is not the same as crossing the line.

The 2026 race will reward those who understand all four truths.

© The People’s Brief | Editors