CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Our Final Opinion before voting.
Yes, Brian Mundubile can win,but he needs a major shift in votes.
Here is the simplest way to understand the numbers.
2021: THE STARTING POINT
In 2021, HH received about 2.85 million votes, while Edgar Lungu received about 1.87 million votes.
HH defeated Lungu by roughly 980,000 votes.
For this analysis, we assume Lungu’s 2021 votes become Mundubile’s votes in 2026.
2026: IF VOTERS BEHAVE THE SAME WAY
Zambia now has about 8.79 million registered voters.
If 80% of registered voters turn out and the 2021 voting pattern remains roughly the same:
- HH: 4.04 million votes
- Mundubile: 2.65 million votes
- Other candidates: 337,000 votes
HH would lead by approximately 1.46 million votes.
Mundubile would lose comfortably.
WHAT IF THERE IS A BIG SWING?
Now give Mundubile a very favourable scenario:
- 80% voter turnout
- Mundubile gains 10 percentage points in every province
- HH loses the same 10 percentage points
- Other opposition candidates receive no additional votes in this calculation
The projection becomes:
HH — 3.54 million votes (50.39%)
Mundubile — 3.49 million votes (49.61%)
The difference is only 54,383 votes.
So even with a major nationwide swing in Mundubile’s favour, HH would still narrowly cross the 50% threshold.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
This analysis does not mean Mundubile cannot win.
It means that a 10-percentage-point nationwide swing, by itself, is still not enough under these assumptions.
To win, Mundubile would need to:
- Gain significantly more votes from HH.
- Perform strongly in provinces where he was behind in 2021.
- Attract voters who supported other opposition candidates.
- Maintain strong turnout among his supporters.
THE BIG QUESTION
Can Mundubile move from approximately 2.65 million votes under the unchanged 2021 scenario to more than 3.5 million votes?
That is the real challenge.
A 10-point nationwide swing gets him extremely close, but according to this model, it still does not put him over the line.
FINAL VERDICT
CAN BRIAN MUNDUBILE WIN? — YES.
DOES THIS ANALYSIS SHOW THAT HE WILL WIN? — NO.
It shows that the election could become very close if there is a major movement of voters.
Ultimately, Mundubile must secure more than 50% of the valid presidential votes to win outright.
Elections are decided by votes—not predictions.
– Zambian Watch News.
What is always missed is that no novice Zambian Presidential candidate has ever won elections in Zambia. FTJ Chiluba was a household name as a unionist for decades. Levy Mwanawasa was a former Vice President. Rupiah Banda was an incumbent acting President and a seasoned politician for decades. Michael Sata failed at first attempt in spite of having been a household name in Zambian politics. Edgar Lungu in won in a dubious manner and had the legal process been fair he would not have gone through. He won at the first attempt through a sympathy vote. Hakainde Hichilema won after 20 years in opposition and 5 failed attempts. To expect a non-entity Brian Mundubile to win now, is to fail to understand Zambians. His best chance is in 2031- IF Makebi Zulu will allow him.
Keep on dreaming, Brian Mundubile can not win an election in Zambia,he is not a leader to lead Zambia maybe his relatives in a century ‘s time.
Brian Mundubile knows that this one is a failed attempt. Makebi Zulu is busy figuring out his next move for 2031 after Mundubile loss. I see the Tonse-Pamodzi alliance in confusion and disarray next week. Time to count costs must begin right away in the opposition camp. HH on the side will be business as usual. He may even opt to go and inspect his cattle ranches in Namwala after the results are announced and come back rejuvenated to appoint new cabinet ministers as people line up along the road from his community house to have a glimpse of him. Gents this is politics.
The analysis is good but there are few things which Zambians should also know;
1. HH is now more popular than he was in 2021 and his popularity is countrywide.
2. Mundubile is not as popular as Lungu was and if HH defeated the more popular Lungu than Mundubile, HH can not fail to defeat the less popular Mundubile or just very popular among the PF members.
3. The 2.8 votes for HH are still intact, this time he just needs a top up to 5 million votes or more. On the other hand, the 1.8 votes for the fragmented PF is in tatters, it was up for grabs by the PF factions. So Mundubile is starting from almost zero when HH is starting from 2.8, no matter what Mundubile does, he can’t bridge that gap.
4. PF was stealing money from the people but HH giving the money to the people.
This Parliament will have 226 MPs compared to the previous 156 one, so it will be more difficult to climb this uphill for Mundubile than it will be for HH. To make matters worse, there is no presidential aspirant who wins with the majority on first attempt. Don’t use Chiluba because his time was different from this one, that time we were all fed up of UNIP and wanted it to go. This time it’s the opposite, people still want UPND under HH to continue.
5. When we come to Economic Management, HH is far much better that his opponents and he has done a lot to repair the big damage they left.
6. I can go on and on but HH has a vision for this country while the opponents have nothing. Bakalesabaila fye, promising excavators for makerteers and nothing for the country.
For the sake of our country and the future generations, HH stands out as better candidate than his rivals.
It is impossible for Mundubile to enjoy a 10 point swing in his favour in all provinces. The HH strongholds will not deliver that to him. That means he has to rely on Lusaka Copperbelt and the northern circuit where he will then need a 20 per cent swing to compensate. That is another impossibility.
First time ever we are going to have a run off. Hope ECZ is prepared for this.