CCMG INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCURACY OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS FOR THE 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
The Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) employed the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology and deployed 1,500 stationary observers to a nationally representative sample of polling stations in every province, district and constituency on Election Day.
Based on polling station results from 1,491 of 1,500 (99.4%) sampled polling stations, the PRVT estimates:
Voter turnout at 53.5% +/- 0.6%, a significant decrease from 70.6% in 2021.
President Hakainde Hichilema (UPND) at 56.0% +/- 1.7%.
Brian Mundubile (NRPUP) at 42.3% +/- 1.7%.
All other candidates at at most 0.5% each.
Rejected ballots at 2.8% +/- 0.1%.
The PRVT estimates clearly show that President Hichilema received the most presidential votes and more than the 50% threshold.
However, the official results for turnout, President Hichilema and Mundubile do not fall within the PRVT estimated range. This is because in 30 constituencies identified by the PRVT as problematic, the official turnout is well outside the upper limit of the PRVT estimate due to increased votes for UPND
For the 30 problematic constituencies, the average change in turnout from 2021 was +6%, while for the remaining 196 constituencies it was -15%.
Importantly, the variances identified do not alter the overall outcome of the presidential election, but they merit further review, particularly given the implications for the allocation of proportional representation seats.
CCMG calls on the ECZ to immediately make public all 226 “Record of Proceeding at the Totalling of Votes” for the presidential and constituency-based parliamentary elections, and to publish images of the GEN20 forms for all 13,529 polling stations.
The ECZ, in consultation with political parties and civil society organisations, should determine an appropriate and expeditious way forward to ensure that official results reflect the actual ballots cast by voters on Election Day.
CCMG calls on all political parties and candidates to remain calm, conduct themselves peacefully and seek redress through legal processes.
These have been extremely challenging elections. Transparent, inclusive and technically-sound electoral and regulatory reforms will be required to improve Zambia’s electoral processes.
CCMG calls for all Zambians to remain calm and peaceful.
God Bless Zambia!
Read full statement here:// https://t.ly/k8zJ1
Thank you for the important independent report which clearly helps to give some independent insight into the reliance of the Presidential results patterns.
The same can be said concerning the independent election report produced by the TIZ which also highlight a similar independent result pattern.
This together with what the Electoral Commission of Zambia reports on the just ended elections give us a bird eye view on what the true , reliable and trustworthy information about the reality of the inclination of the election results.
These reports may be not what is political supporters preferred but certainly reports that can guide on the reliability of the outcome of the elections. This is a good starting point for dialogue instead of emotional out burts.
Using these three independent observations which are very critical reports over the elections we will soberly and patriotically on principle agree to disagree on the basis of these factual finds.
Emotions can not be used to decide the outcome pf the elections. Let is trust the independent observations of these institutions to give us checks and balances
I personally am saddened by the lose of all lives lost during this election. It is a great national loss and unfortunately irreversible.
Only God can heal us now. Sincere condolences go to all the families who have lost their beloved ones. We share your pain and are very hurt about these losses.No one deserved to die. No one.
For now we need to quietly reflect on where we have reached as a nation. The deep divide that has befallen us because of our preferred political leaders.
The leaders of all political parties need to have introspection on what values are most important to drive their grass roots. Instead of hatred and weapons which harm each other , carders must now be trained to communicate the manifestos of the political parties. Violence must end.