ECONOMIC SHOCKWAVES AHEAD: ZAMBIA FACES POTENTIAL US TRAVEL BAN IMPACT
Zambia’s economy is staring down potential disruption following widespread concern over a perceived travel ban targeting Zambian nationals by the United States government. While no official statement has been issued from Washington, local analysts and business leaders warn that the repercussions could be devastating for key sectors of the economy if such restrictions are enacted or even rumored to be in place.
Dr. Esther Banda, a respected economist, has expressed deep concern over the development, citing its likely impact on tourism, trade, and international investment. In a sit-down interview with Kumwesu Business, she described the situation as a “ticking time bomb” for Zambia’s already vulnerable economy, which is still recovering from global market shocks and local fiscal constraints.
She emphasized that tourism, one of Zambia’s fastest-growing sectors and a significant source of employment and foreign exchange, would be among the first to feel the blow. Zambia’s top tourist attractions such as the Victoria Falls, South Luangwa National Park, and Lower Zambezi National Park are especially popular with American tourists whose absence would create a major revenue gap.
..
Tourism operators in Livingstone and Mfuwe have started reporting early warning signs, including an increase in trip cancellations, fewer inquiries from US-based travel agencies, and growing anxiety over international travel insurance conditions. With Zambia expecting a strong 2025 tourism rebound, the potential travel restriction could derail anticipated growth projections.
Beyond tourism, Dr. Banda noted that Zambia’s export portfolio—particularly non-traditional exports destined for the US market—faces additional uncertainty. Key products such as honey, groundnuts, cotton lint, and floriculture supplies could suffer delays, reduced orders, or pricing disadvantages if bilateral tensions escalate.
“Zambia needs the American market. Even a minor disruption in trade logistics or buyer sentiment could shift export dynamics in favor of our regional competitors,” Dr. Banda explained. She warned that local producers who rely on consistency and scale may be forced to redirect goods at lower prices or risk losses.
Adding to this is the broader impact on investor sentiment. The United States remains a key investor in Zambia’s energy, telecommunications, and agriculture sectors. Perceptions of instability or strained diplomatic relations could dampen investor confidence and delay project rollouts or funding disbursements.
Dr. Banda also raised concern about remittances from Zambians living in the US. Many families in Zambia rely on financial support from relatives abroad. A travel ban could affect student visa applications, family visits, and even business exchange programs, tightening household income and limiting educational opportunities.
In response, she is urging the Zambian government to act swiftly by initiating diplomatic engagement with the US. “Government must not wait for the worst to happen. Our foreign affairs and trade ministers need to get ahead of this issue, seek clarification, and begin repairing any miscommunication that may exist,” she said.
As speculation grows, the private sector is pressing for more transparency and reassurances. Chambers of commerce, export associations, and tourism boards have jointly called for government and embassy briefings to address public fears and prevent knee-jerk reactions from businesses and consumers alike.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has remained largely silent, fueling further speculation. However, diplomatic sources suggest that behind-the-scenes communication between Lusaka and Washington has begun, with both parties expected to release a joint statement in the coming days.
Until then, Zambia faces an atmosphere of uncertainty. Stakeholders from every corner of the economy are holding their breath, hoping that the perceived ban is either a misunderstanding or a matter still open to diplomatic negotiation. In the meantime, businesses are being urged to diversify their markets, build resilience, and prepare contingency strategies.
Dr. Banda concludes with a message of cautious optimism: “Zambia has survived greater storms. But this moment requires wisdom, agility, and diplomacy. Our economic future may depend on how fast and how wisely we act today.”
June 19, 2025
©️ KUMWESU