⬆️ Economist Praises Zambia’s Fiscal Stabilization Under Hichilema but Warns of Growth Challenges Ahead
Zambian economist Dr. Lubinda Haabazoka has offered a measured assessment of President Hakainde Hichilema’s four-year economic record, noting significant progress in restoring fiscal stability and international credibility but warning that the challenge ahead lies in ensuring broad-based and inclusive growth.
In his analysis titled “Zambia’s Economic Performance Under President Hakainde Hichilema: An Economist’s Assessment,” Dr. Haabazoka highlights the government’s success in stabilizing key macroeconomic indicators following a period of debt distress and fiscal imbalance. He observes that the administration inherited “a difficult macroeconomic environment marked by unsustainable debt, high inflation, currency volatility, and declining investor confidence” when it took office in August 2021.
A major milestone, he notes, was the debt restructuring agreement reached with both bilateral and private creditors under the IMF and G20 Common Framework between 2023 and 2024. This process provided fiscal breathing space, reduced interest costs, and allowed greater investment in social and capital projects. Dr. Haabazoka compares this to the HIPC completion point of 2005, when Zambia last saw significant debt relief that spurred growth.
On macroeconomic stabilization, the economist points to encouraging trends, including inflation falling from above 20 percent in 2021 to single digits in 2024 and 2025. Fiscal discipline, improved transparency, and tighter expenditure controls have reinforced macroeconomic confidence, though food inflation and low domestic revenue collection remain structural pressures.
Haabazoka also cites modest but resilient economic growth, driven by renewed investor interest in copper and critical minerals essential for the global energy transition. He commends the government’s focus on long-term investment and value addition in mining, while cautioning that agriculture and energy reforms must accelerate to mitigate climate-related shocks and recurring power shortages.
On the social front, Haabazoka acknowledges improvements in education and health, including free education, mass recruitment of teachers and health workers, and increased budgetary allocations. However, he stresses that maintaining fiscal sustainability will depend on efficient delivery and targeted spending.
The economist further notes that investor confidence has improved, reflected in higher activity on the Lusaka Securities Exchange and renewed foreign interest in sectors such as agriculture, ICT, and renewable energy. Yet, he warns that small and medium enterprises still face limited access to affordable finance, which constrains local business growth.
Dr. Haabazoka concludes that Zambia is in a “transition phase.” The government’s success in restoring credibility and stabilizing the macroeconomy has laid the groundwork for recovery, but lasting prosperity will depend on structural transformation and inclusive growth.
“President Hichilema’s economic management has been marked by the restoration of credibility, stabilization of key indicators, and improved investor confidence,” Haabazoka writes. “The challenge now lies in translating these gains into broad-based, inclusive growth.”
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