ECZ, Voter Figures & a Growing Trust Deficit

 ECZ, Voter Figures & a Growing Trust Deficit

The Electoral Commission of Zambia has moved to clarify what it calls a misunderstanding over voter registration figures, after opposition voices raised alarms about an alleged discrepancy of 1,788,405 voters ahead of the 2026 general election.

The controversy was triggered by a statement from Chishala Kateka, who questioned why a total of 8,861,918 registered voters announced during the 2025 Mass Registration exercise did not match a 7,073,513 figure appearing in a detailed polling-station register hosted on the ECZ website. Kateka described the variance as “a significant and whopping 25.28% differential” and warned that it undermined confidence in the electoral process.

In a press statement dated 11 January 2026, ECZ rejected any suggestion of hidden or excess voters. The Commission said the 7,073,513 figure represents the current certified register, consisting of voters registered before the 2021 election and those added through continuous registration up to February 2024.

The additional 1,788,405 voters, ECZ explained, were registered during the Mass Registration of Voters exercise conducted between October and November 2025 and remain provisional.

“The figure is provisional and represents raw registration data, which is currently being cleaned and validated,” ECZ said. It stressed that combining a certified register with a provisional one and labelling the difference as fraudulent is “misleading and inaccurate.”.

The Commission outlined mandatory post-registration processes still underway. These include removal of duplicate registrations, deletion of deceased voters, consideration of claims and objections, and public inspection. Only after these steps, ECZ said, will the final register be certified and announced for use in the 2026 election.

ECZ Chief Electoral Officer Brown Kasaro added that “at no point does the Commission hide figures or intend to manipulate voter data,” reaffirming that all procedures are conducted in line with the Constitution and electoral laws, with the participation of political parties and stakeholders.

Despite the clarification, opposition suspicion remains high. Kateka argued that ECZ should have proactively explained the distinction earlier, noting that analysts and opposition parties had already been using the provisional figure in public commentary.

“If opposition did not become aware of this differential, what did ECZ intend to do with it?” he asked, warning that elections can be “lost before even the first ballot is cast.”

The episode is unfolding against a tense political backdrop. Several opposition figures, including from the Patriotic Front and the Socialist Party, have increasingly accused the Commission of bias in favour of the ruling United Party for National Development.

These claims have not been substantiated by evidence but are gaining traction on social media and within opposition ranks.

Adding to the intrigue are unconfirmed reports that PF officials, including Makebi Zulu, have been engaging former ECZ officials in private consultations. Those named in rumours include Patrick Nshindano and Esau Chulu. The meetings are said to focus on “vote protection” strategies, though no formal statements have been issued by the individuals involved.

For ECZ, the challenge now goes beyond arithmetic. While the Commission’s explanation aligns with standard electoral practice, the timing and political climate mean that technical clarity alone may not restore trust. With opposition unity fragile and fears of manipulation already entrenched, voter figures have become a proxy battlefield for a deeper contest over credibility.

As the Commission completes data cleaning and moves toward certifying the final register, the coming weeks will test whether transparency and engagement can steady public confidence, or whether suspicion will continue to shape the narrative long before polling day.

© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu.