Logically, HH is winning 2026. Unfortunately, politics is not logical.
When you look at political events through a logical lens, everything seems obvious. Yet politics is never interpreted logically. If logic truly governed politics, then doctors, PhD holders, and the most educated in society would be the best politicians. But history shows the opposite, the more educated one is, the worse they often perform politically. Why? Because politics is not solved by logic it is a science of its own, requiring a political mind.
Therefore, while logic says HH is winning 2026, politics reminds us that nothing is certain.
Logically, there is no strong opposition. But politically, there are 8 million voters. In the last election, HH won with 2.8 million votes, his closest rival had 1.8 million. Logically, that rival is gone. Politically, those 1.8 million voters remain and now 3.4 million new voters have joined the numbers. All 8 million are living with the effects of load-shedding, the rising cost of living, and the reality that the ballot box will not carry one name alone.
Logically, PF is dead. Politically, no major PF member has defected. So where is the death of PF? Is a party’s life found in documents, or in the ideologies printed on the hearts of its members?
Logically, UPND is intact. Politically, many of its members who sacrificed for the party are starving and neglected. Alliance partners who laboured alongside UPND feel abandoned. Citizens face unfulfilled promises. Logic cannot see this but politically, failing to reward political sacrifice is a grave mistake.
Logically, the opposition must unite to win. Politically, Michael Sata never united with anyone. In fact, the PF–UPND alliance collapsed just before the 2011 elections. In 2021, UPND, MMD, PF, UNIP, and many others all contested separately yet government still changed hands. Logic says unity is essential but politics shows victory can still be a two-horse race even in the abundance of candidates.
Logically, it takes years to sell a presidential candidate. Politically, winds can shift overnight. When those winds blow, no logic can explain how an incumbent loses by over a million votes despite having state machinery. Logic cannot explain how the mighty MMD fell to Michael Sata an “uneducated” man during a time of economic growth. The economy was so strong in MMD that President Rupiah Banda stopped reading intelligence reports for six months, convinced there was nothing to worry about. Logic failed him. Politics did not.
History is full of examples proving that logic alone cannot be trusted in politics. Please understand that I am not advocating for people to neglect logic however those who rely on logic alone will fumble politically.
Even in matters of state protocol, logic fails. Logically, ECL should be buried at Embassy Park. Logically, the family is the next of kin of the body and should decide. If they refuse the president’s attendance, logic dictates delegation to the vice president. Yet as logical as this may be, it has not happened. Why? Because politics is not logical.
So yes, logically HH is winning 2026. But politics is not logical. The outcome remains unpredictable, just as it was on 8th March 2021, when no one could have logically predicted PF’s defeat despite massive infrastructure development.
Michael M. Mulusa
The Voice
hh might get 98% votes this time