LUSAKA AND COPPERBELT REMAIN KEY TO WINNING ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS – MWANZA
LUSAKA — Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president Antonio Mourinho Mwanza has observed that Zambia’s presidential elections since 1991 have followed a consistent electoral pattern in which successful candidates build broad coalitions anchored on key regions.
In a political commentary on Zambia’s electoral trends, Mr. Mwanza explained that most presidential candidates who have ascended to State House did so by securing support from three strategic electoral pillars.
He described the trend as “the Three-Region Path to State House,” noting that “since 1991, presidential elections in Zambia have shown a clear pattern.”
According to him, candidates who eventually win the presidency typically combine strong performances in Lusaka Province, Copperbelt Province and a dependable regional stronghold.
Mr. Mwanza said Lusaka Province has historically played a decisive role in determining national outcomes because of its large urban population and high voter turnout.
He stated that “Lusaka Province plays a decisive role in national elections,” adding that the province often reflects the national mood and can generate momentum for candidates who perform strongly there.
He further observed that the Copperbelt has traditionally acted as a national swing region capable of delivering decisive votes during elections.
According to Mr. Mwanza, “winning the Copperbelt can add hundreds of thousands of decisive votes,” particularly because of the region’s large concentration of urban and working-class voters.
The DPP leader also emphasized the importance of a strong regional base for any presidential contender, describing it as the foundation of a national campaign.
He explained that “without a dependable regional base, building a winning coalition becomes very difficult.”
Mr. Mwanza further noted that historical trends since 1991 show that ruling parties that eventually lost power first lost political dominance in Lusaka and the Copperbelt before losing the presidency, suggesting that the two regions often act as a barometer of Zambia’s political direction.
Looking ahead to the 2026 general elections, he projected that presidential candidates may need between 2.6 and 2.8 million votes to meet the constitutional threshold of 50 percent plus one vote required to win.
Mr. Mwanza summarized the electoral dynamics by stating that a regional stronghold provides the base of support, Lusaka builds political momentum, and the Copperbelt often delivers the final push to State House.