PF IS NOT COMING BACK, NOT EVEN THROUGH AN ALLIANCE
It’s very easy to predict election results from country to country if you ask me.
Firstly, this is not only the case of PF but also previous political parties which tasted power and failed to return. Initially, it’s only in the United States where it’s easier for a political party removed from power to be able to return, and that’s because of the two-party system. Third parties there, like for example, the Green Party (GP); operates like any other organization than a political party and particularly, the (GP) advocates for environmental issues. That’s it’s role in the system.
That alone, gives USA an advantage to vote for either A or B in an election, helping them to reduce political disorderliness and unnecessary rivalry in the country. Because small parties know what to do, and U.S. A’ s system is such that some small roles are left to these third parties.
Taking it home (Zambia), parties like Socialist Party of Dr. Fred and Citizens first of Harry Kalaba with no representative in Parliament (for example), would pick a field of interest and contribute positively at their level; knowing that they can’t form government. That said, Americans would always not vote for third parties; to make sure that their votes count, they would definitely vote for candidates likely to win.
Unlike, what we’re seeing in poor countries like Zambia. Imagine small parties like those mentioned above (SP and CF) competing with UPND and making all the noise when they know they would not form government; I guess that’s using resources wrongly-but again that’s our system and type of democracy. Noise yes, because it helps to shape our policies, yet the purpose of making noise points to our poor electoral system and kind of democracy which is not development-centered and disorganized.
Regardless, in Zambia parties have failed to return to power because everyone wants to lead. Everyone wants to become a president. In the United States factions in the Democratic-Republican party came about differences in ideologies, yet in Zambia differences comes due to selfishness, everyone wants to lead and enrich themselves.
Why is PF and it’s alliance a failure?
I will give you an example of the 2001 elections. After a failed Chiluba’s third term; he picked Levy Patrick Mwanawasa as the MMD presidential candidate. Party elites were unsatisfied, they believed they were more deserving, so they left the party and formed their own; the FDD, PF and so on.
At the same time, some opposition parties came together and formed an alliance in order to challenge Levy Patrick Mwanawasa in the 2001 elections, but the alliance failed after they failed to agree on the presidential candidate for the same alliance. This gave MMD an advantage to win that election because the opposition was divided.
Similarly, in 2006; there were a number of alliances, like the United Democratic Front (UDF) which had the likes of Michael Sata of Patriotic Front, Mwila of ZRP, Rev. Dr. Nevers Mumba and others. Before the convention, Sata left the alliance. Later the alliance chose Mwila of ZRP as it’s presidential candidate. This forced Nevers Mumba to leave the alliance. Why? Because almost every leader who joined the alliance wasn’t ready to be led.
In the same year on the other hand, UPND, UNIP and FDD formed an alliance UDA and Mazoka who came second to Mwanawasa in the 2001 elections became their presidential candidate. After the death of Anderson Mazoka, Edith Nawakwi thought she would be the presidential candidate for the alliance. But, because UPND was being funded by HH; HH himself, was chosen to replace Mazoka. In this election HH came out third.
After the 2001 elections, HH and Edith Nawakwi became real rivals beyond politics.
Since 1991, the party which got prominence very fast was the UPND but because of Anderson Mazoka’s death; it was replaced by Sata’s PF, making it to stay the longest in the opposition. PF lost 3 times, the fourth time they formed government, under a decade in 2011.
Otherwise, just like in my previous post; the PF factions started after Sata died in 2014 when almost every PF member wanted to become president.
The 2014 PF conventions were split into two parallel disputed gatherings: each, electing a different leader.
The two were, the Edgar Lungu’s Convention and Miles Sampa’s Convention. The ECL’s convention had the likes of Inonge Wina, who was at the time the PF National Chairperson and Davies Chama was appointed at this very convention as the new Secretary General (SG). The Sampa’s convention had Guy Scott (then vice president and acting president) who officially opened it. GBM and Robert Sichinga were some of the party presidential hopeful, present. Chishimba Kambwili, Given Lubinda, Wilbur Simuusa and Christine Kaseba were also vying for the party presidency from this end, but were not present. Daniel Munkombwe was the chairperson at this convention.
On the ECL’s side, ECL went unopposed, and was announced legitimate PF party president while on the other hand Sampa was announced winner and legitimate PF party president.
The party was divided. Later, the high court declared ECL as the duly elected PF presidential candidate, nullifying the results of the Miles Sampa’s convention.
I believe you are following.
Anyway, disputes were resolved, PF was once again a complete piece. Because the people of Zambia loved Sata so much, the PF went round campaigning for ECL saying that he was the one Sata had chosen before his demise, to lead the PF party and country. The people of Zambia reciprocated with their emotional votes. In the 2015 elections, ECL won as president, beating HH and the others.
After ECL won as president, many political careers ended. Especially, for those whose names were appearing at Miles Sampa’s side of a convention.
Fast-forward, ECL was elected for the second time in 2016 and due to selfishness, in 2021 he tried the Chiluba style of pushing for a third term. Despite him succeeding to be on the ballot in the 2021 August elections, he lost to HH of UPND.
In between, a lot has happened; but, because everyone in PF wants to be the presidential candidate for 2026 August elections; the party remains divided since 2021 and this gives the ruling party (UPND) an advantage.
As it stands, PF can’t unite even if they happen to choose their party president, they’re only together because all those aspiring for the party presidency believe that they would be that party’s president. The real drama would unfold after a convention, which might not take place. At the same time, the Tonse Alliance (name copied from Malawi), would completely dissolve as parties would definitely not agree when it comes to who must be the presidential candidate.
Otherwise, how the system works is that; a candidate for an opposition party would only remove the government of the day after their impact is felt on the ground. The only person who had influence in PF was ECL and if chance was there, he had an opportunity to bounce back. Just like HH failed to inherit Mazoka’s influence in the 2006 elections, there’s no leader in the PF who would ride on ECL’s influence and win. They would definitely, have to take their time, build their influence and maybe win in the later future if PF will be there. Equally, the Zambian economy doesn’t suggest a shift in government.
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