PF/TONSE ACTUALLY LOST VOTES WHILE UPND WAS CONSTANT -Electoral Outcomes: A Statistical and Contextual Interpretation, Cast in Legal Form- Larry Mweetwa

By Larry Mweetwa

PF/TONSE ACTUALLY LOST VOTES WHILE UPND WAS CONSTANT -Electoral Outcomes: A Statistical and Contextual Interpretation, Cast in Legal Form

Preamble and Context

For the avoidance of doubt, and in the interest of intellectual honesty, electoral outcomes must be interrogated not by raw emotion or partisan theatrics, but through a disciplined reading of numbers, turnout dynamics, and voter behaviour. As the old maxim cautions, “Figures do not lie, but careless interpreters often do.”

What follows is a reasoned, quasi-legal construction of the electoral data, fortified with statistical interpretation, tempered satire, and the wisdom of experience.

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Statement of Electoral Facts
1. General Election – 2021
• Registered voters: 50,000+
• Votes obtained by UPND: 20,000+
• Approximate vote share: ~40% of total votes cast
• Winning candidate (PF – Tasila): 35,000 votes (~70%)
2. Parliamentary By-Election
• Registered voters: 50,000+ (unchanged register)
• Actual voter turnout: ~15,000 voters (~25–30% turnout)
• Votes obtained by UPND: 6,000+
• Vote share: ~40% of votes cast
• Winning candidate (FDD – Nundwe): 8,000+ votes (~53%)

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Statistical Interpretation and Legal Analysis

On a strict numerical construction, UPND’s proportional support remained materially constant at approximately 40% across both electoral events. In legal terms, there is no statistical regression in voter preference, only a numerical contraction occasioned by voter turnout.

Put differently, the denominator changed—not the numerator’s credibility.

Low turnout in the by-election radically altered the electoral ecosystem. By-elections are, by nature, low-energy contests, typically influenced by:
• Reduced voter mobilisation
• Protest voting
• Emotional symbolism rather than policy comparison
• Fragmentation of the vote among minor parties

As the saying goes, “When the crowd is small, the loudest drum seems the biggest.”

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Comparative Outcome Assessment
• In 2021, PF secured victory with a commanding ~70%, reflecting a high-turnout, polarised national election.
• In the by-election, the winning margin dropped to ~53%, notwithstanding UPND’s consistent 40% share.

Statistically, this suggests vote redistribution, not voter rejection. The electorate did not abandon UPND; rather, a portion of voters simply abstained, while others expressed short-term sentiment through alternative vehicles.

Or, as political folklore would have it:
“The river did not dry up; fewer people came to fetch water.”

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Fan Satire, Tempered by Reason

To declare catastrophe on the basis of raw vote counts without turnout context is akin to charging a man with theft without establishing ownership. The numbers, when properly cross-examined, do not sustain the charge of collapse.

One might even say:
“A party that holds 40% in a low-turnout storm has not sunk; it has merely docked.”

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Conclusion and Strategic Wisdom

In summary:
• UPND’s electoral base remained statistically stable.
• The apparent decline is arithmetical, not ideological.
• Low turnout and altered contest dynamics explain the numerical shift.
• Panic, therefore, would be legally unsound and strategically reckless.

As the proverb wisely instructs:
“Do not rewrite the law because the courtroom was half empty.”

The prudent course is not lamentation, but mobilisation, message refinement, and turnout engineering—for in elections, as in law, procedure often determines outcome more than principle