POLITICAL ANALYSIS: NCHANGA CONSTITUENCY – A BATTLEFIELD IN THE MAKING FOR 2026

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: NCHANGA CONSTITUENCY – A BATTLEFIELD IN THE MAKING FOR 2026

Nchanga Constituency in Chingola District is poised to be one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the 2026 general elections. With a population base of 117,067 in Chingola District and 47,276 registered voters in Nchanga Constituency, the political temperature is already rising, largely due to the surprise entry of Hon Mulaza Kaira  popularly known as Macky 2, a retired music artist now eyeing political office.

A LEGACY OF RULING PARTY LOYALTY

Historically, Nchanga has followed the national political tide. Since independence in 1964, when Aaron Milner of UNIP became the first Member of Parliament, the constituency has consistently aligned with the ruling party. UNIP held the seat six times until the political revolution of 1991, which saw President Frederick Chiluba of the MMD sweep into power, carrying Nchanga along with him. From MMD, the seat transitioned to Patriotic Front (PF), again following the national shift in governance. In 2021 the same happened with UPND forming government.

This pattern suggests that Nchanga voters tend to favor stability and alignment with the government in power, perhaps due to economic expectations or administrative proximity. However, this trend appears to be under threat in the current political cycle.

UPND’s FRAGILE HOLD

In 2021, the UPND captured Nchanga with a narrow victory. The incumbent MP secured 17,293 votes, edging out the PF candidate who garnered 15,690 votes, from a total of 34,217 votes cast. With a voter turnout of approximately 72%, this was a keenly contested race and signals that the electorate is deeply polarized.

While UPND is in power nationally, the early challenge to its sitting MP, long before the official campaign window suggests internal vulnerability. Mulaza Kaira’s aspiring has complicated the equation, as his celebrity status brings both national attention and a fresh dynamic to Nchanga constituency politics.

THE MACKY 2 EFFECT

Mulaza Kaira’s transition from stage to statecraft has injected unprecedented energy into Nchanga’s political discourse. Known widely as Macky 2, the former music icon enjoys a youthful fanbase and is leveraging his brand to reimagine himself as a voice for the people. His campaign still unofficial, has already stirred significant debate, social media traction, and speculation about whether Nchanga’s traditional preference for political veterans may shift in favor of charisma, identity, and relatability.

Kaira’s bid is historic in its own right. Nchanga has never elected an independent MP, and while he has not yet formally declared a party affiliation, his popularity has potential to disrupt both UPND and PF strongholds  especially in urbanized wards.

WARD DYNAMICS AND VOTER STRATEGY
Nchanga comprises seven wards:

1. Bulangililo, the largest, with 15,199 registered voters

2. Kwacha with 11,288 registered voters

3. Ipusukilo with 10, 945 registered voters

4. Chantente with 3,466 registered voters

5. Musonda with 7,629 registered voters

6. Riverside with 8,044 registered voters

7. Lubwa with 7,576 registered voters

Bulangililo alone accounts for nearly a third of the entire constituency’s voting population. Any candidate with a strong foothold in this ward gains a strategic advantage. With Macky 2’s roots and fanbase in the Copperbelt, he is expected to perform well in densely populated, youth driven areas like Bulangililo, Kwacha and Ipusukilo.

However, political machinery, ground mobilization, and party resources in rural wards such as Musonda and Lubwa still matter. Voter education, door to door outreach, and alliances with local influencers will determine how much impact Macky 2’s celebrity can translate into actual votes.

CONCLUSION

The 2026 race in Nchanga is shaping up as a three way contest between the incumbent UPND, the rebuilding PF, and Mulaza Kaira  who represents a political outsider with disruptive potential. For the first time in decades, Nchanga’s loyalty to the ruling party may face a serious test. If Kaira sustains momentum and translates his popularity into policy credibility, he could force a new political identity onto the Copperbelt’s electoral map.

Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain all eyes are now on Nchanga.