The Chawama Paradox: How Opposition Egos are Handing Victory to the UPND
The upcoming Chawama by-election, scheduled for January 15, 2026, is shaping up to be a masterclass in political self-sabotage. While the seat, vacated under controversial circumstances, presents a prime opportunity for the opposition to signal a shift in national sentiment, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Instead of a united front, the ballot paper is cluttered with a staggering array of opposition names, revealing a deep-seated fragmentation that threatens to render them irrelevant.
In any democratic contest, the math is unforgiving. When the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) fields a single, consolidated candidate, they benefit from a concentrated vote share. Conversely, the opposition has allowed the field to be crowded by no fewer than eight to nine candidates, including representatives from Citizens First, the Leadership Movement, FDD, and several independents.
By splitting the anti-incumbent vote into nearly a dozen tiny fragments, the opposition is essentially doing the UPND’s campaign work for them. This is not a demonstration of democratic pluralism; it is a demonstration of strategic illiteracy.
The primary driver of this fragmentation is not a difference in ideology, but the unbridled egos of opposition leaders. Each party head seems to view themselves as the “chosen one” to lead the charge against the current administration, refusing to yield for the sake of a broader coalition.
Despite the high stakes, there has been no successful attempt to rally behind a single consensus candidate who could actually challenge the UPND’s resources.
The sheer number of candidates suggests that these leaders do not comprehend the magnitude of the task at hand. They are fighting for the “crumbs” of Chawama while losing sight of the national cake.
A cluttered ballot confuses the electorate. When voters see a fractured opposition, they see a lack of leadership, often leading them to choose the “stability” of the ruling party or simply stay home.
The Objective reality is that the UPND does not need to be exceptionally popular to win Chawama; they only need to be more organized than the chaos across the aisle. As long as opposition leaders prioritize their personal brand and party logos over a unified strategy, they remain the ruling party’s greatest electoral asset.
If the UPND secures the Chawama seat on January 15, they will not have defeated the opposition; the opposition will have defeated itself. The crowded field is a monument to political vanity, a clear sign that for many “leaders,” the desire to see their own face on a poster outweighs the desire for genuine political change. Until the opposition learns that zero plus zero plus zero still equals zero in a first-past-the-post system, they will continue to be the architects of their own irrelevance.The opposition is not fighting the UPND; they are fighting each other for the right to lose.
The Struggle Continues
Sensio Banda
Former Member of Parliament
Kasenengwa Constituency
Eastern Province