A few days ago the Electoral Commission of Zambia declared Bright Nundwe of the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) as the winner of the Chawama parliamentary by-election, securing 8,085 votes against the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND)’s Morgan Muunda, who trailed with 6,542 votes.
This outcome, in a constituency long regarded as a Patriotic Front (PF) stronghold previously held by Tasila Lungu, daughter of former President Edgar Lungu, has ignited celebrations among opposition ranks. Social media buzzed with mockery of the UPND government, hailing the result as a harbinger of change.
But let’s cut through the hype. This isolated win means absolutely nothing if the opposition remains a chaotic mess of egos, greed, and infighting. Without unity, they are marching toward humiliating defeat in the August 2026 general elections.
Chawama has always been PF territory, a working-class Lusaka enclave where loyalty to the party’s grassroots legacy runs deep.
Nundwe’s victory was secured through unconventional tactics like washing clothes and cooking for residents, but also reflects a local protest vote than a seismic shift in national political permutations.
Voter turnout was modest, with only 18,096 ballots cast, and the margin, while decisive at 1,543 votes, hardly screams a mandate for regime change.
This is not a bellwether for the opposition’s strength; it is a routine result in a PF heartland where anti-UPND sentiments simmer due to economic hardships like rising fuel prices and unemployment. Extrapolating this to presidential polls is not just naive but also delusional.
The Zambian people do crave change. Inflation is still high, jobs are scarce, and the high cost-of-living crisis under President Hakainde Hichilema’s administration has fueled discontent. But translating that into electoral success requires more than scattered by-election upsets. At the presidential level, the game changes entirely.
Zambia’s 50 per cent plus one system will favor the candidate with a consolidated bloc, not a splintered opposition fielding multiple candidates who cannibalize each other’s votes. Remember 2021? Hichilema’s UPND triumphed because the PF was weakened by internal divisions and overconfidence. Fast forward to 2026, and history is repeating itself in reverse.
The opposition comprising PF, FDD, Citizens First, and a dozen others is a hydra of competing ambitions, with leaders more focused on personal fiefdoms than a unified front.
Take the PF’s unnecessary leadership wrangles, and the greed that sees politicians jumping from one alliance to another, for personal gain.
Defections breed distrust and dilute messaging. If the opposition can’t agree on a single presidential candidate or a coherent platform, how can they expect voters to rally behind them? The excitement over Chawama may be misplaced. It is a sugar rush that ignores the marathon ahead. Mocking the government on social media might feel cathartic, but it simply distracts from the real work: forging serious and enduring coalitions.
This is not speculation, it is a pattern. By-elections in strongholds rarely predict national outcomes. In 2016, PF swept similar contests yet faced challenges later. Today, UPND holds the incumbency advantage: control over state resources, media influence, and a narrative of economic stabilization despite global headwinds and increased economic hardships among millions of Zambians. Opposition leaders must wake up.
The people want change, yes, but they won’t hand it to a disorganized rabble. Unite or be humbled, that is the stark reality. Focus on policy, not petty rivalries. Build alliances, not egos. Chawama is no guarantee of victory; it is a warning shot. If ignored, August 2026 will be a rout, not a revolution.
Zambians deserve better than this cycle of false hope. The opposition has the numbers on paper, but without discipline, they’ll squander their advantage. It is time to get serious or get sidelined.
John 8:32 “And you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”
Get in touch with us on WhatsApp +263786654620
©️ Zambian Whistleblower
This analysis sounds a bit reasonable let’s add that UPND ‘ s main advantage is the numerous achievements so far. Like it or not UPND has performed exceptionally well during their first term. Other difficulties have been inherited and UPND is simply trying to correct the inherited mess. Many Zambians know this and have no reason to vote for a useless PF disguised as FDD. It’s very definate that UPND will win August election without much difficult, possibly better than 2021.