THERE IS NO ONE MAGICAL FORMULA TO REDUCE THE COST OF FUEL — WE NEED A COMPLETE SUPPLY-CHAIN STRATEGY
The cost of fuel in Zambia cannot be sustainably reduced by focusing on only one issue — whether subsidies, INDENI, Angola, taxes, TAZAMA or the refinery.
Fuel prices reflect the full landed cost of petroleum products: international prices, the exchange rate, procurement, financing, transportation, pipeline and storage costs, taxes and levies, losses and margins throughout the supply chain.
If we genuinely want cheaper and more stable fuel, we must examine the entire chain.
1. INDENI — LET US BE FACTUAL
On 5 February 2026, the Minister of Energy told Parliament that the old INDENI refinery had been assessed and that a private-sector assessment found it outdated, requiring substantial investment, with recapitalisation considered commercially unattractive.
That is the private-sector assessment. It should not be presented as an independent Government feasibility study proving that rehabilitation is impossible.
In February 2025, Government also told Parliament that INDENI Energy had become an OMC trading in imported finished petroleum products and that approximately US$250 million would be required for full operations — about US$100 million working capital and US$150 million capital expenditure.
We should neither romanticise the old refinery nor dismiss the strategic value of INDENI’s remaining assets and functions we should instead make a decision based on professional data.
2. ZPEC MUST BE JUDGED BY ECONOMIC RESULTS
The new ZPEC refinery in Ndola is designed to which according to Government records has the ownership structure of 30% IDC and 70% Fujian Xiang Xin is a welcome development, however, a refinery does not automatically mean cheaper fuel.
The real test is whether it can obtain competitively priced crude, operate efficiently, maintain high utilisation and deliver products to Zambia at a competitive fully landed cost.
That is what should be measured.
3. ANGOLA AND LOBITO MUST BE ABOUT NUMBERS, NOT POLITICS
Being an oil producer does not automatically make Angola the cheapest source of fuel for Zambia.
We must distinguish between crude oil and finished petroleum products.
Zambia currently imports finished products. Government states that about 80% of low-sulphur gasoil is transported through TAZAMA, with the balance by road, while petrol, Jet A-1 and kerosene are transported by road.
So the correct question is not simply:
“Why don’t we buy Angolan oil?”
It is:
“Which source and route can deliver fuel to Zambia at the lowest reliable fully landed cost?”
That calculation must include product or crude price, transportation, pipeline or rail charges, storage, handling, financing, insurance, losses and, where applicable, refining and distribution costs.
4. DIVERSIFY SUPPLY AND PROTECT COMPETITION
Zambia should not become excessively dependent on one petroleum corridor.
We need multiple reliable supply routes so that disruption on one corridor does not become a national fuel crisis.
The TAZAMA Open Access experience also demonstrates the importance of competition. Government reported that the framework improved efficiency and reduced transport costs, contributing to diesel prices falling from K32.54/litre in March 2025 to K28.11/litre in July 2026.
Competition should be the norm; emergency intervention should be temporary and justified.
5. SUBSIDIES AND TAX RELIEF ARE VERY IMPORTANT INTERVENTIONS BUT THEY ARE NOT STRUCTURAL SOLUTIONS
Targeted subsidies or tax relief can protect consumers during exceptional international price shocks.
But the cost does not disappear. It is transferred to Government through lost revenue, increased expenditure or borrowing.
Therefore:
We should not subsidise inefficiency. We should remove inefficiency. Subsidies must be targeted and efficient.
That means reducing procurement, transport, storage, financing and distribution costs while ensuring transparent margins and efficient strategic stocks.
6. AUDIT EVERY KWACHA IN THE FUEL VALUE CHAIN
The public should know where every kwacha in the pump price goes.
We must examine:
Wholesale cost → terminal and storage costs → taxes and levies → transportation → OMC margin → dealer margin → regulatory charges → Strategic Reserves Fund → pump price.
Where a cost is necessary, accept it.
Where competition can reduce it, introduce competition.
Where an avoidable loss exists, eliminate it.
Where a margin is excessive or unexplained, investigate it.
7. REDUCE OUR STRUCTURAL DEPENDENCE ON PETROLEUM
Finally, Zambia must reduce the amount of petroleum it needs to import.
That means investing in efficient public transport, rail freight, electric mobility where economically viable, renewable electricity, LPG where appropriate, and energy efficiency.
The less petroleum we consume, the less exposed we are to international oil prices, exchange-rate movements and external supply disruptions.
THE BOTTOM LINE
There is no magical formula for cheaper fuel
Zambia needs a complete supply-chain strategy that reduces costs at every stage while protecting security of supply.
Antonio Mourinho Mwanza
Friday, 2nd October, 2026
So why didn’t you as a very senior PF member do all these things when you were in power?? You were busy threatening to kill HH in prison. And promising your smelling genitals if PF lost.
And you actually think Zambians can allow failures like you back into leadership?
Just go into farming. You have no future in politics.