What Happens If Both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Are Shut Down?
A simultaneous shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could trigger one of the most serious disruptions to global energy supplies and maritime trade in decades.
Hormuz is a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf, while Bab el-Mandeb connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Losing access to both would put major energy shipments and international shipping under unprecedented pressure.
Oil and gas prices could surge as exporters struggle to deliver supplies and importers compete for alternative sources. Shipping companies could face soaring insurance premiums, longer voyages around Africa, higher fuel costs and delays affecting everything from energy to food and industrial goods.
Asian economies would face particular pressure because much of the energy passing through Hormuz is destined for Asian markets. Europe could also face higher transport costs and supply delays as vessels divert away from the Red Sea and Suez route.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have some pipeline infrastructure that can bypass Hormuz, but alternative routes cannot fully replace all disrupted maritime flows. Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope would also add significant time and cost.
The military consequences could be equally serious. Protecting commercial shipping might require expanded naval deployments, while attacks on vessels, ports or energy infrastructure could widen the conflict across the Gulf and Red Sea.
A simultaneous closure would not automatically stop all global oil supplies, but it could sharply restrict key export routes, intensify inflation and increase the risk of a wider international crisis. The ultimate impact would depend on how long the disruption lasted and whether alternative routes and diplomatic efforts could restore maritime traffic.