WHAT TODAY’S COURT BAIL MEANS FOR RAPHAEL NAKACINDA
By Shalala Oliver Sepiso
All things remaining constant, Raphael Nakacinda will not walk out of prison today despite being granted bail by the courts because he is still serving another 18-month prison sentence.
The K20,000 cash bail granted by the Lusaka Magistrates Court this morning applies only to a specific 6-month sentence for expressing hatred or ridicule against people based on their tribe and origin. In December 2025, Nakacinda was handed a six-month sentence for expressing hatred or contempt based on tribe (hate speech).
However, the court ruled that this sentence would run concurrently with his existing 18-month term, meaning it does not extend his overall time in prison beyond the original period of his earlier sentence.
Clearly, Nakacinda is currently serving the 18-month jail term for defaming President Hakainde Hichilema. This sentence was upheld by the High Court in late 2025, and he began serving it immediately.
His supporters like reporting that his legal team recently informed the court that he is scheduled to complete this 18-month term on 21st January, 2026, following the application of remission. This calculation seems to be based on his original sentence date and not the date when he started serving the sentence.
In fact, if that was case, he would have already been freed. Raphael Nakacinda was sentenced to 18 months in prison with hard labour on 17th May, 2024. He only began serving this sentence on 21st October, 2025, after the Lusaka High Court upheld the conviction for defaming the President and issued a bench warrant for his immediate arrest. Based on a sentence start date of 21st October, 2025, his scheduled release date – based on full 18-month term (one year and six months) calculated from 21st October, 2025 without Remission – is 21st April, 2027.
With Remission, based on his 18-month conviction, he can be freed 6 months earlier than his release date with good behaviour and industry in jail. This is on 21st October 2026.
The story that his lawyers informed the Lusaka Magistrate Court this mnth that he is scheduled for release next week following the application of remission under the Zambia Correctional Service Act doesn’t add up whether you consider his 18-month sentence or his 6-month sentence.
The bail granted today only suspends the 6-month tribal remarks sentence pending its appeal. Since the magistrate had ruled that the 6-month term would run concurrently with his existing 18-month term, he must remain incarcerated until the longer sentence is completed or legally resolved.
It is worth remembering that Nakacinda also faces additional charges, including a sedition case related to claims about security raids, which is scheduled for further proceedings on 24th January and 27th February, 2026.
Correct analysis.