August Election by the Numbers

🇿🇲 EXPLAINER | August Election by the Numbers

As Zambia enters the final three weeks before the August 13 general election, the campaign is increasingly being defined by confidence. Rallies are growing larger, predictions are becoming bolder and competing camps are projecting victory with growing certainty. Last week, Tonse Alliance election strategist Chris Zumani Zimba predicted Brian Mundubile would win the presidency with between 60 and 70 percent of the vote.

The ruling UPND, meanwhile, continues to project confidence through an intensive nationwide campaign that has already taken President Hakainde Hichilema to more than 65 rallies since launching his re-election bid on June 28.

But elections are not decided by confidence. They are decided by numbers.

On August 13, 8,786,300 registered voters will cast ballots across 226 constituencies, 116 districts, 1,858 wards and 13,529 polling stations. Every polling station must be staffed, supplied and monitored. Every ballot must be counted before a national result can emerge. Following constituency delimitation, Zambia’s electoral map is larger than at any point since the return of multi-party democracy, making this one of the country’s most complex elections to administer.

The enlarged electoral map has also changed the economics of campaigning. Political parties now require more parliamentary candidates, more campaign teams, more polling agents and more financial resources to compete across the country. Presidential campaigns may dominate headlines, but parliamentary candidates provide much of the organisational structure behind them. They mobilise local supporters, recruit polling agents, coordinate logistics and maintain a constituency-level presence throughout the campaign and on election day.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia’s list of validly nominated candidates illustrates two contrasting strategies. The UPND has fielded parliamentary candidates in all 226 constituencies, giving the governing party a presence in every district and province. The NRPUP, which forms the largest parliamentary component of the Tonse Alliance, is contesting about 150 constituencies, leaving approximately 76 constituencies without a parliamentary candidate under its banner.

The provincial distribution tells a similar story. In Lusaka Province, the UPND is contesting all 18 constituencies, while the NRPUP has 13. On the Copperbelt, the figures are 29 against 24. Central Province stands at 23 against 18, Eastern Province at 29 against 26, Northern Province at 19 against 17, Muchinga Province at 14 against 13 and Luapula Province at 20 against 18. The gap widens significantly in North-Western Province, where the UPND has candidates in all 19 constituencies compared with eight for the NRPUP. In Western Province, the figures are 26 against seven, while Southern Province records the widest disparity at 29 against four.

Tonse Alliance rejects suggestions that the figures reflect organisational weakness. Alliance officials say parliamentary candidates were deployed strategically following internal electoral assessments, with resources concentrated in constituencies considered winnable rather than pursuing nationwide numerical coverage. The approach prioritises efficiency over breadth, although it also leaves large parts of the country without a parliamentary campaign operating under the alliance’s principal banner.

Whether the strategy succeeds remains one of the defining questions of this election. A presidential candidate can still attract votes in constituencies where no parliamentary candidate has been fielded. However, fewer parliamentary candidates generally mean fewer constituency offices, fewer local campaign teams and fewer polling agents. In closely contested elections, organisation can become as important as popularity.

Another emerging issue is election observation. Zambia’s domestic observer groups have traditionally deployed thousands of monitors across the country to strengthen transparency and public confidence. This year, concerns have emerged over reduced funding following changes in United States foreign assistance priorities.

Some opposition voices have responded by calling for broader independent observation, including Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT), a recognised methodology used by accredited citizen observer groups to independently verify official results using a representative sample of polling stations.

The debate has also generated misinformation. Last week, claims circulated on social media alleging that the United States Government would deploy election observers and conduct its own Parallel Vote Tabulation during Zambia’s elections. The United States Embassy rejected those claims, stating that it is not sending an election observation mission and is not conducting a Parallel Vote Tabulation in Zambia. The clarification reinforced the distinction between accredited domestic observation, international observer missions and misinformation circulating online.

The numbers also place political predictions into perspective. Campaign rallies remain an important measure of visibility and enthusiasm, and both President Hichilema and Brian Mundubile have demonstrated an ability to attract large crowds in different parts of the country. Crowds can shape momentum. They cannot determine an election. Only ballots can do that.

Chris Zumani Zimba’s prediction of a 60 to 70 percent victory for Brian Mundubile reflects confidence within the Tonse Alliance. The UPND projects similar confidence through its campaign schedule and nationwide mobilisation. Neither position is unusual during an election campaign. Political actors are expected to project strength.

Ultimately, however, Zambia’s next President will be chosen by 8.7 million registered voters casting ballots across 13,529 polling stations. The decisive test is no longer who can fill the largest rally or make the boldest prediction. It is who can organise effectively across an expanded electoral map, protect the vote at polling station level and secure the confidence of a majority of Zambians when the ballots are counted.

© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu