PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2026: PROJECTED RESULTS FOLLOWING THE HH/UPND MAZABUKA RALLY
A statistical projection using the Ising Model of statistical physics, applied alongside a political science Fundamentals Model, has produced the following projected outcomes after the HH/UPND campaign rally in Mazabuka.
1. Mazabuka Central Constituency
2021 Baseline: HH 87.3% | PF 12.0% | Turnout: 78.7%
2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 89.98% (43,755 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 4.78% (2,325 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 1.12%
– M’membe/SP: 0.82%
– KBF: 0.51%
– Others: Below 0.4% each
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 1.83% (891 ballots)
Projected turnout: Approximately 48,626 votes cast from 61,781 registered voters.
2. Mazabuka District
(Aggregated results for Magoye East, Magoye West, and Mazabuka Central)
2021 Baseline: HH 90.4% | PF 8.8% | Turnout: 81.2%
2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 91.67% (79,782 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 3.60% (3,136 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 0.89%
– M’membe/SP: 0.65%
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.01% (1,753 ballots)
Projected turnout: Approximately 87,029 votes cast from 107,115 registered voters.
3. Southern Province
2021 Baseline: HH 93.5% | PF 5.6% | Turnout: 83.9%
2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 93.28% (862,941 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 2.45% (22,678 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 0.69%
– M’membe/SP: 0.50%
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.20% (20,315 ballots)
Projected turnout: Approximately 925,156 votes cast from 1,103,275 registered voters.
4. National Projection
– HH/UPND: 66.69% (4,157,628 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 24.88% (1,551,125 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 1.80%
– M’membe/SP: 1.31%
– KBF: 0.82%
– Mushimba/OPP: 0.55%
– Katuta: 0.49%
– Other candidates: Below 0.25% each
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.97% (185,330 ballots)
Total projected votes cast nationwide: Approximately 6,234,256.
Note: These figures are projections generated from a statistical model using historical election data and campaign variables. They are not official election results or guarantees of the final outcome.
©️Zambia First Media
HH will win but don’t misuse models. By citing fancy names of statistical or whatever models do not dupe us. Wait for us to vote. HH is winning of course, but your model has no idea of the probable outcome. It is pure rubbish.