CAMPAIGN ACCESS IS NOT ELECTORAL CONVERSION
Why the “70% Mundubile Victory” Claim Collapses Under Scrutiny
– By ‘PADRE’ BERND MUTOTO
This write-up responds directly to the article titled “12 Signs That HH Has Lost His Traditional Monopoly on Southern Province and Brian Mundubile Is Winning With Above 70% This August,” written by Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba, the TONSE Alliance Secretary-General and NRPUP Chief Presidential Advisor, and published by The Zambian Whistleblower.
The article by Dr. Zimba is campaign advocacy from a senior official in the Mundubile camp—not an independent opinion poll or evidence-based electoral forecast.
Dr. Zimba does not establish a national political realignment; he merely announces one. He mistakes democratic access for electoral conquest, parliamentary disputes for presidential rejection, and campaign crowds for counted ballots. Not so fast Dr. Zimba.
First, the ability of Brian Mundubile and other challengers to campaign in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces does not prove that President Hakainde Hichilema has lost those regions. It proves nothing of the kind.
In a functioning democracy, a stronghold is an area of overwhelming political preference and not prohibited territory.
The political space that allows challengers to campaign there may generate visibility and excitement, but access is not acceptance.
Second, Dr. Zimba interprets President Hichilema’s rallies in traditional UPND regions as evidence of panic. Yet a serious national campaign must reinforce its base, maximize turnout, promote parliamentary candidates and prevent complacency.
No competent political organization abandons its strongest flank merely because it won there previously.
There is admittedly visible friction involving former UPND parliamentarians. Some of the President’s language against Mr. GARRY NKOMBO may also be criticized as unnecessarily personal. But local rebellion does not automatically become presidential defection.
Zambia permits split-ticket voting whereby a citizen may support an independent parliamentary candidate while retaining Mr. HICHILEMA for President. That distinction is critical.
In a survey, the Zambia Election Research Network found that 55% of respondents intended to vote for Hichilema, although only 33% wanted to retain their sitting MPs. Another 24% preferred different parliamentary candidates from the same party.
Presidential and parliamentary preferences can therefore diverge considerably.
More decisively, Mr. Garry Nkombo has publicly rejected claims that he is working with Mr. Brian Mundubile. He explained that his electoral symbol was allocated by the Electoral Commission of Zambia.
His independent parliamentary campaign cannot therefore be casually converted into an NRPUP presidential endorsement.
Then comes Dr. Zimba’s arithmetic.
His article predicts 25% for Mr. Mundubile in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces and “above 70%” in six other provinces—but completely omits Central Province.
According to the ECZ’s final 2026 register, the three UPND-leaning provinces contain 2,256,822 voters. The six provinces where Dr. Zimba assigns Mundubile at least 70% contain 5,709,399 voters, while Central Province has 820,079.
Assuming equal turnout and even generously giving Mundibile 70% in Central, the stated scenario produces approximately 58.4% nationally, not 70%.
To obtain 70% nationally while receiving 25% in the three western regions and 70% in Central, MUNDUBILE would require nearly 88% across the other six provinces. That is not a projection established by Dr. Zimba’s article; it is a historically extraordinary aspiration presented without polling evidence.
The historical baseline is equally formidable. In 2021, President Hichilema received 91.8% in Southern, 87.58% in North-Western and 82.33% in Western Province. Nationally, he secured 2,852,348 votes or 57.51%, against President EDGAR LUNGU’s (blessed memory) 1,870,780. His mandate was national, not merely a three-province monopoly.
The opposition has legitimate ammunition: household level challenges, the cost of living and internal UPND disagreements must not be dismissed.
Yet inflation fell to 6.5% by June, economic growth was projected at 4.3%, and the latest independent assessments still described President HICHILEMA as the favorite, substantially.
On July 24, Reuters reported that polls and investors widely expected him to defeat a fragmented opposition.
Dr. Zimba and The #Zambianwhistleblower are entitled to political hope but campaign permission is not political surrender, independent candidates are not automatically Mundubile’s votes, and confidence is not evidence.
The Zambian whistleblower closes the article by invoking JOHN 8:32. That scripture raises the standard the publication must meet: truth requires evidence, not conjecture.
Elections are decided by ballots, and every projection must first survive arithmetic.
MAY THE BEST CANDIDATES WIN