THE NUMBERS SUGGEST A TWO-HORSE RACE… BUT LUSAKA AND COPPERBELT COULD DECIDE IT
BEFORE YOU READ…
To those who will say, “Bwezani, stick to football,” this one is for you.
Football is my passion, but I am also a Zambian citizen. From time to time, I enjoy analysing national issues, just as I analyse football
This is not campaigning for anyone. It is simply looking at what the numbers may be telling us.
If politics isn’t your thing, feel free to skip this one. For everyone else, let’s put emotions aside and allow the numbers to speak.
HERE IS MY TAKE!!!
The Electoral Commission of Zambia has certified 8,786,300 registered voters for the 2026 General Election. Women make up 53.1% of the register, while the four largest provinces account for 56.5% of all registered voters.
Now, let us look at the politics behind the numbers.
If we go by recent electoral history, President Hakainde Hichilema remains strongest in Southern, Western, North-Western and much of Central Province, while Brian Mundubile appears to enjoy stronger support in Eastern, Northern, Luapula and Muchinga.
The picture immediately becomes interesting.
HH’S APPARENT BASE
Southern – 1,103,275
Central – 820,079
Western – 629,352
North-Western – 524,195
Total: 3,076,901 registered voters
MUNDUBILE’S APPARENT BASE
Eastern – 1,129,444
Northern – 722,403
Luapula – 694,681
Muchinga – 435,536
Total: 2,982,064 registered voters
The difference between the two political blocs is only 94,837 registered voters.
That immediately tells us something.
Neither side has enough numbers in its traditional support base to comfortably guarantee 50%+1.
Now look at what remains.
THE BIGGEST PRIZE
Lusaka – 1,430,889
Copperbelt – 1,296,446
Together, these two provinces have 2,727,335 registered voters, almost 31% of the entire national voters’ register.
This is where the election could be won or lost.
If President Hichilema protects his traditional support and performs strongly in Lusaka and Copperbelt, he puts himself in a very strong position for a first-round victory
If Brian Mundubile dominates his traditional areas and also performs exceptionally well in Lusaka and Copperbelt, the contest becomes extremely competitive.
There is another point many people miss.
This election is not about winning provinces.
It is about winning votes.
A candidate can win four provinces comfortably and still struggle nationally if the opponent performs much better in the provinces with larger populations.
That is why Lusaka and Copperbelt are not just swing provinces.
They are vote-rich provinces.
THE REAL TEST
Looking at the numbers alone, President Hakainde Hichilema appears to begin this race with a solid foundation in his traditional strongholds. The bigger question is whether he can maintain the same enthusiasm and voter turnout that carried him to victory in 2021.
For Brian Mundubile, the challenge is slightly different.
There is visible political momentum in parts of Eastern, Northern, Luapula and Muchinga. Rallies have attracted attention and the opposition appears energised.
But elections are not won by momentum alone.
The real question is:
Has that excitement translated into actual votes?
That answer will only come on polling day.
THE REGIONAL QUESTION
Unfortunately, there is another reality we cannot pretend does not exist.
The issue of tribal voting continues to feature in Zambia’s elections.
Many people may not like discussing it, but every election reminds us that regional and ethnic voting patterns still influence electoral outcomes.
It is unfortunate because democracy should be driven by ideas, leadership and policies, not by where a candidate comes from.
Perhaps one day Zambia will completely move beyond that.
For now, however, it remains part of the political equation.
SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT ZAMBIA
Perhaps the biggest mistake politicians and supporters make is believing social media reflects the entire country.
It doesn’t.
Facebook does not vote.
TikTok does not count ballots.
X (Twitter) does not declare a President.
Many Zambians who decide elections never comment online.
They quietly register.
They quietly queue.
They quietly vote.
And then they quietly go home.
That is why every election surprises someone.
The loudest voices on social media are not always the largest voices at the ballot box.
THE CONCLUSION
This election is shaping up to be one of Zambia’s most fascinating contests.
Both sides have reasons to be confident.
Both sides have reasons to be cautious.
The ruling party has the advantage of incumbency and established strongholds.
The opposition appears to have revived significant support in its traditional bases.
But neither side can afford complacency.
As we say in Chewa
“Nsomba zazikulu zimapezeka pakati pa madzi.”
“The biggest fish are found in the deepest waters.”
In this election, Lusaka and Copperbelt are the deepest waters.
Whoever protects their strongholds, competes effectively in the swing provinces, and converts supporters into actual voters will have the clearest path to 50%+1.
Until then, let us enjoy the campaigns, question the promises, and respect differing opinions.
Because in the end, crowds do not elect Presidents. Social media does not elect Presidents.
The ballot box does.