Eastern Becomes Battleground as Hichilema Returns, Endorsement Rocks Opposition

🇿🇲 EVENING WIRE | Eastern Becomes Battleground as Hichilema Returns, Endorsement Rocks Opposition

With just 11 days remaining before Zambia’s August 13 general election, Eastern Province has rapidly emerged as one of the defining theatres of the presidential race.

Carrying 1,129,444 registered voters, or 12.85 percent of the national register, the province represents the third-largest voting bloc after Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Every serious campaign understands the arithmetic. No candidate can afford to ignore Eastern. On Sunday, President Hakainde Hichilema returned to the province, not simply to hold rallies, but to reinforce what increasingly appears to be one of the UPND’s most important electoral offensives.

The President’s campaign caravan swept through Katete, Chadiza and Vubwi, drawing thousands to community meetings where his message remained remarkably disciplined. Rather than unveiling a fresh catalogue of campaign promises, Hichilema repeatedly asked voters to judge his administration on continuity.

In Katete, he told supporters they had agreed “to continue the journey we started in 2021 of turning around our country’s economy,” while promising expanded agricultural support, improved schools, more roads and additional business opportunities.

In Chadiza, he argued that with debt restructuring largely behind the country, government attention was now turning to lowering the cost of living, while Vubwi’s message centred on expanding farming support, Constituency Development Fund projects, feeder roads, Social Cash Transfers and free education.

The consistency of that message is becoming one of the defining characteristics of the UPND campaign. Unlike some campaigns built around announcing new incentives at every rally, Hichilema is increasingly presenting himself as a candidate asking voters to renew an existing contract rather than negotiate an entirely new one. The political argument is simple: the foundation has been laid; the second term should complete the structure.

Then came the day’s biggest political development.

As President Hichilema arrived in Katete, Resolute Party official Dr Martin Phiri publicly endorsed his candidature, a move that immediately shifted attention away from the rallies themselves. Within hours, the Resolute Party responded by expelling him with immediate effect, accusing him of betraying both the party and the PF Pamodzi Alliance.

In a strongly worded statement, the party reaffirmed its “unwavering support” for Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu, insisting that Dr Phiri’s endorsement was inconsistent with the alliance’s official position.

Politically, the significance lies less in one individual’s endorsement than in what it reveals about the contest now unfolding inside Eastern Province. Traditionally regarded as favourable territory for the ruling former Patriotic Front, Eastern has become one of the provinces where the UPND believes additional gains are possible.

For the opposition, retaining its influence there remains equally important because the province forms part of the electoral pathway required to offset the UPND’s commanding margins in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces.

Campaign strategy also helps explain why the President returned. Some opposition voices have argued that revisiting provinces signals electoral anxiety. The available evidence suggests something different. Having already campaigned in all ten provinces, the UPND has entered a second phase in which it is reinforcing carefully selected battlegrounds while maintaining multiple campaign teams across the country. Eastern, because of both its population and political history, naturally falls into that category.

Revisiting a competitive province is not unusual. It is often where elections are refined rather than won.

Crowds again dominated Sunday’s imagery. Katete, Chadiza and Vubwi all produced sizeable attendances, while one unexpected campaign figure continued attracting attention—the now familiar Brown Bally Bear, whose appearances have increasingly become part of the UPND’s campaign branding and social media engagement. Like musicians, mascots and other campaign attractions seen across the political divide, such moments generate visibility and online conversation. They should not, however, be mistaken for electoral measurement. Zambia’s political history repeatedly demonstrates that rallies energise campaigns, but votes are ultimately cast in private.

The mathematics of Eastern Province explains why every visit matters. With more than 1.1 million registered voters, even modest percentage shifts translate into tens of thousands of ballots.

For the UPND, improving on its 2021 performance here would further strengthen its national position. For the opposition, preventing those gains is equally critical if it hopes to construct a viable path to State House. In a race increasingly defined by margins rather than headlines, Eastern is not simply another campaign stop. It is one of the provinces where the final arithmetic may be written.

© The People’s Brief | Ollus R. Ndomu