By Kellys Kaunda
INSIGHTS FROM ANTONIO ‘MOURINIO’ MWANZA’S APPEARANCE ON JOSEPH MWENDA’S PODCAST
Antonio dug out numbers. From past elections – provincial and constituency registration and voting patterns. The numbers told a story.
In a country where no scientific polls are taken to ascertain voter mood and direction, numbers of registered voters and voting outcomes in the past become the only reliable measuring rod.
Hakainde Hichilema won in 2021 because finally Eastern, Northern, Muchinga and Luapula Provinces gave him votes in volumes he never had before
These provinces had consistently denied him five times in a row. So, what do they think of him now after giving him a chance in 2021?
Think of it this way. You relentlessly pursued a woman while she turned you down time after time. Then one day, she says “yes”. You will watch every step you take going forward because you know that if she had rejected you many times before, she could easily toss you out of her life!
If she rejected you five times before probably means that you are not that impressive, attractive, she’s not easy to please, she doesn’t need anything from you or there’s really nothing in common between the two of you. It means every time she tells you that she has something to talk to you about, your anxiety levels will rise because she may be delivering the outcome of an evaluation report which may have found you wanting.
Especially if the relationship hasn’t been that long, chances of her walking away easily are ever present. She ll do it without blinking an eye-lid. And especially women that are mature and have seen men up-close and personal, they can smell a crooked dude from miles away!
The love story of President Hichilema and the northern and Eastern voting blocs is barely five years – not long enough to take a lover for granted. So, it would be fair to say that his Presidency hangs in the balance and sitting on a knife edge. It’s not easy to read the mood.
Just as women these days are liberated and spoilt for choice because there are countless alternatives or choices in the dating industry, voters, by the same token, have alternatives thanks to the wide democratic space.
These days, you lie to a woman once, she ll teach you a lesson you will live to regret the rest of your life. They no longer play games. It doesn’t matter whether you took her to school or funded her business.
It’s the same with voters. You may have sunk a borehole; built a clinic; built classroom blocks, etc, if you ve missed what is truly important to them, they ll toss you out like some woman you paid two days ago but rejects you and chooses another one because today you have no cash!
At best, I think President Hichilema’s relationship with voters from the northern and Eastern blocs is fragile and unpredictable.
The southern votes are guaranteed. There, turning up to register as a voter and turning up to vote is like a religious duty. Faithfully, they turn up in their numbers like going on a pilgrimage. It’s almost personal for each voter.
As long as Hichilema is on the ballot paper, it doesn’t matter whether he has performed well or not, you can rest assured that they ll vote for him. It’s almost as if there’s something being protected and defended jealously.
Someone said, “Southern Province feels Harry Mwaanga Nkumbula, the son of the soil should have been Zambia’s first President. But that pride you feel that one of your own is up there slipped through their fingers. Now that the son of the soil is holding the most coverted national position, they will close ranks and ensure every vote goes to him”
Call it whatever name you feel like, it’s a viable political strategy. The same way that they worked their way into the northern and Eastern voting bloc is the same way others must work their way into the southern voting bloc.
If southerners finally penetrated, it means there’s a possibility that the BM8 team could do the same. It’s a matter of strategy. It’s not easy but doable. In any case, if something has value and it’s important to you, you will go an extra mile, wouldn’t you?