BREAKING: James Talarico Now Leads in Texas Polls, First Democrat to Do So Since 1988
James Talarico just did something no Texas Democrat has managed in nearly four decades, he’s leading.
Three consecutive polls now show the Austin state representative ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the race for Texas’ open Senate seat. The most recent, from Texas Southern University, has Talarico up 47 to 45 percent, with earlier surveys from Texas Public Opinion Research and Fox News showing leads of 5 and 3 points. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1988.
Talarico isn’t just leading, he’s building a coalition that breaks the old rules of Texas politics. He’s dominating among independents, overperforming with younger voters by a wide margin, and even edging ahead among voters without a college degree, a group Republicans have counted on for years. Paxton, meanwhile, is struggling with his own base, and a majority of voters say they think he’s corrupt.
Talarico’s pitch centers on paid family leave, universal childcare, and a sweeping anti-corruption package that includes banning partisan gerrymandering, along with banning super PACs, corporate PACs, and congressional stock trading.
He’s framed the race as a fight against what he calls a corruption crisis driving up costs for working families, telling a crowd of more than a thousand supporters in Arlington that Texans who work hard and play by the rules deserve a shot at an affordable life.
It’s still a close race, and Paxton’s campaign isn’t panicking yet. But for the first time in nearly forty years, a Democrat in Texas is the one ahead, and it’s happening on a message built around paid leave, lower costs, and cleaning up corruption.