VOTE BRIEF | Hichilema Leads After 49 Constituencies, But Vote Geography Matters
President Hakainde Hichilema has maintained an 87,427-vote lead over opposition challenger Brian Mundubile after results from 49 of Zambia’s 226 constituencies, with the Electoral Commission figures placing Hichilema at 438,708 votes against Mundubile’s 351,281.
The numbers, however, reveal a more complicated contest than the national totals suggest. Mundubile has recorded victories across several constituencies in Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Eastern and the urban Copperbelt. Among them are Kasama Central, where he received 20,689 against Hichilema’s 8,178; Chinsali Central, 15,606 to 3,986; and Chipata North, 16,345 to 7,172.
Mundubile is demonstrating considerable strength across territory associated with the former PF electoral base.
Hichilema’s advantage is being built differently. His victories in the relatively small number of Southern Province constituencies announced so far have produced exceptionally large vote margins. Chikankata returned 38,739 votes for Hichilema against 475 for Mundubile, Sinazongwe 29,098 against 382, Kalomo South 23,802 against 83, and Dundumwezi 22,043 against 46. Similar advantages have appeared in parts of Central and North-Western provinces.
“The important number is not simply how many constituencies each candidate wins. It is how many net votes each constituency contributes to the national tally,” Ollus Ndomu, Election Analyst, wrote during the morning analysis.
“Mundubile can win several constituencies across the northern circuit, but if those victories come by smaller margins while Hichilema continues producing margins running into tens of thousands elsewhere, the constituency map can favour one candidate while the national popular vote favours another.”
This distinction could become central to understanding the 2026 result. Southern Province has 29 constituencies, with only a fraction reflected in the current national tally.
Several other areas expected to contribute heavily to Hichilema’s vote also remain outstanding. Mundubile, meanwhile, needs strong turnout and sufficiently large margins across Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Eastern and the Copperbelt to counter those votes.
The early figures therefore support one conclusion, not a prediction: Hichilema is leading, while Mundubile remains competitive across a wider geographical spread of the results announced so far. Winning more constituencies or even more provinces does not automatically produce the presidency. Zambia elects its president through the national vote, subject to the constitutional threshold.
With 177 constituencies still outside this 49-constituency tally, the race remains incomplete. The People’s Brief will continue following the arithmetic rather than the social-media narrative, separating official results from circulating claims as the national picture develops.
– The People’s Brief | Mwape Nthegwa