🇿🇲 VOTE ANALYSIS | Hichilema Extends Lead as 70 Constituencies Reveal the Mathematics of the Race
The latest presidential results have strengthened the pattern identified in our earlier analysis. With 70 of 226 constituencies now in the consolidated count, President Hakainde Hichilema leads with 626,434 votes, while Brian Mundubile has 505,795. The gap is now 120,639 votes, up from 87,427 when 49 constituencies had been counted.
This means the additional 21 constituencies have produced approximately 187,726 votes for Hichilema and 154,514 for Mundubile, a net advantage of 33,212 for the incumbent. Put differently, the new batch has not merely preserved Hichilema’s lead. It has expanded it. Still, 156 constituencies remain, making any declaration about the eventual winner premature.
The geography remains striking. Mundubile continues to demonstrate his consolidation of the old PF belt. Mansa West gave him 13,993 against Hichilema’s 3,302. Mpanda in Northern Province returned 11,930 against 2,419. Chilinda in Muchinga produced 13,328 against 4,550, while Lumezi North in Eastern Province gave Mundubile 12,045 against 3,722. These are substantial victories. They reinforce the evidence from Kasama Central, Chinsali Central, Chipata North and several Luapula constituencies announced earlier.
But Hichilema’s counterweight remains the size of his victories elsewhere. Monze Central delivered 21,509 against Mundubile’s 968. Itezhi-tezhi West returned 14,707 against 332. Mwandi in Western Province produced 12,047 against 411, while Zambezi West in North-Western gave Hichilema 6,250 against only 25. Those four constituencies alone give Hichilema a combined advantage of more than 52,700 votes over Mundubile.
Central Province is becoming particularly important. Keembe East gave Hichilema 20,706 against Mundubile’s 4,015, a margin of 16,691. Nkundalila went 4,142 to 2,656, while Lukusashi was considerably tighter at 3,885 to 3,480. Central is therefore not producing the near-total domination visible in Southern Province, but every sizeable Hichilema advantage there adds another layer to the cushion created by his heartlands.
Lusaka Province also continues to resist a simple opposition-versus-ruling-party narrative. Hichilema won Kafue East 13,922 to 8,145, Chilanga South 13,605 to 7,710 and Kafue West 15,096 to 11,508. Mundubile, however, edged Chongwe West 16,367 to 15,604. Combined with earlier results from Chongwe East, the province remains competitive, but Hichilema is collecting enough votes around the capital’s peripheral constituencies to complicate Mundubile’s route.
This is why counting constituencies won can mislead. Mundubile may ultimately carry more constituencies across Luapula, Northern, Muchinga and Eastern, and could remain highly competitive on the Copperbelt and in Lusaka. Zambia’s presidency, however, is not awarded according to the number of provinces or constituencies carried.
The 70-constituency picture is making the arithmetic clearer. Mundubile is winning important territory, but Hichilema is presently winning the margin contest. A 10,000-vote Mundubile advantage in Mansa West can be erased by one large Hichilema result elsewhere. Keembe East alone gives Hichilema a margin of almost 17,000. This is why the national cumulative vote matters more than the colour of the constituency map.”
The contrast is even clearer when the two stages of counting are compared. At 49 constituencies, Hichilema had 438,708 against Mundubile’s 351,281, a lead of 87,427. At 70 constituencies, the lead stands at 120,639. Hichilema has therefore gained another 33,212 votes of net advantage from the latest batch.
There is another reason for caution. Only 70 of 226 constituencies, roughly 31%, are represented in this tally. The remaining 156 are not politically uniform. Large sections of the Copperbelt, Lusaka, Eastern and the northern circuit remain important to Mundubile’s path, while further constituencies from Southern, Western and North-Western could produce large Hichilema margins. The sequence in which constituencies arrive can therefore make the national lead expand or contract sharply.
The emerging path for Mundubile is increasingly mathematical. Winning his strongholds is not enough. He needs larger margins from them, particularly populous Copperbelt constituencies and the remaining northern and eastern vote, while limiting Hichilema’s accumulation in competitive territory. Hichilema’s path is different. He can afford to lose numerous constituencies provided he continues overwhelming Mundubile in his strongest regions and collecting competitive shares elsewhere.
At 626,434 to 505,795, Hichilema is ahead. The lead is real within the consolidated figures before us, and it has grown since the previous batch. It is not, however, a final result.
The election is showing why Zambia’s presidential contest cannot be read simply by asking who won the most places. The more useful question is becoming: who wins them by enough votes?
So far, that arithmetic favours Hichilema.
– The People’s Brief: Ollus R. Ndomu