MORNING WIRE | Hichilema Leads by Half a Million Votes as 91 Constituencies Remain, Security Tensions Rise
President Hakainde Hichilema has extended his lead over opposition challenger Brian Mundubile as the Electoral Commission of Zambia advances with the announcement of presidential results. ECZ results from 135 of Zambia’s 226 constituencies give Hichilema 1,546,140 votes against Mundubile’s 1,030,662, a difference of 515,478 votes. The running tally places Hichilema at about 58.9% and Mundubile at 39.3%, with votes for the other presidential candidates accounting for the remainder. Ninety-one constituencies are still outstanding.
The geography behind those numbers remains critical. Hichilema has won 69 of the 135 constituencies announced, while Mundubile has won 66. But the national vote tells a considerably different story. Southern Province alone has so far delivered 597,665 votes for Hichilema against Mundubile’s 20,644, while North-Western has produced 125,798 against 4,265 and Western 140,243 against 3,894. Mundubile has countered strongly in Eastern, where the current tally stands at 307,103 against Hichilema’s 162,871, and Luapula, where he leads 141,193 to 61,289.
The outstanding map now becomes central to the path to State House. Copperbelt has 20 constituencies remaining, Western 15, Central and North-Western 11 each, Northern nine, Lusaka eight, Luapula six, Southern five, Eastern four and Muchinga two. This matters because several provinces favourable to Mundubile are already substantially counted. Eastern has reported 25 of 29 constituencies, Muchinga 12 of 14 and Luapula 14 of 20. By comparison, only eight of North-Western’s 19 and 11 of Western’s 26 have entered the announced tally.
The emerging arithmetic reinforces a point The People’s Brief has tracked throughout the count. Winning more provinces or constituencies does not necessarily mean winning the presidency.
Mundubile has remained almost level with Hichilema in constituencies won, 66 against 69, while trailing by more than half a million accumulated votes. Hichilema’s advantage comes from the size of his margins, particularly across Southern, Western and North-Western provinces.
The electoral count is unfolding alongside serious security tensions. Secretary to the Cabinet Patrick Kangwa says authorities have detained several people, including senior NRPUP figures, following an operation in Lusaka. Government alleges some individuals had links to foreign nationals and illegal military training and says high-grade military weapons and ammunition were recovered.
Kangwa said some of the people involved had been under surveillance for an extended period. “The persons of interest have been under surveillance over the last two years and more recently in the last few months,” he said.
He added: “Additionally, some of the individuals involved were connected to military plans involving foreign nationals and illegal military training camps, thus posing a serious threat to state security.”
According to Kangwa, authorities also recovered weapons during the operation. “The individuals in issue were found in possession of high-grade military weapons, ammunition, and other materials for use in armed insurrection,” he said.
Kangwa named NRPUP presidential spokesperson George Chisanga, UNIP faction leader Bishop Trevor Mwamba, Simon Phiri, Richard Banda, Francis Mulenga and Patrick Mwansa among key suspects detained. He said Mundubile was found at the scene during the operation.
Kangwa further alleged occupants of the premises fired at law-enforcement officers, resulting in an exchange of fire. He said those detained had been charged and their families and lawyers would be granted access, while investigations continued.
Those are government allegations, not judicial findings. They also follow claims from Mundubile and his political allies concerning the conduct of security forces after Thursday’s election.
The competing accounts remain politically sensitive and require careful separation between what authorities allege, what the opposition alleges and what can be independently established.
For the presidential race, however, the numbers are becoming clearer. Hichilema leads by 515,478 votes with 91 constituencies still to be announced.
Mundubile remains strong across significant parts of the northern and eastern electoral belt, but overturning the national deficit will depend not simply on winning outstanding constituencies. He needs margins large enough to overcome Hichilema’s accumulated advantage.
– The People’s Brief | Chileshe Sengwe; Ollus R. Ndomu