INSIGHT | When the tree falls, birds fly away: Tonse’s Case
There is an old African saying whose precise origin is difficult to establish: “When the tree falls, the birds do not hold a funeral; they simply fly to another tree.” It offers a useful way of reading what is happening inside the Tonse political project. The alliance entered August expecting power. It leaves the election confronting defeat, a security investigation, an internal argument over an election petition and, now, the departure of the registered party which carried its presidential candidate.
On Sunday evening, NRPUP made the break official. Secretary-General Nonde Mubanga announced the party’s immediate withdrawal from Tonse after what he described as consultations and consideration of the prevailing political circumstances. He said NRPUP would announce its future political affiliation later. Independent reporting confirms the withdrawal.
Those words matter because NRPUP was not an ordinary passenger in Tonse. It was the registered political vehicle. Tonse brought together political actors and parties, many with roots in the former PF establishment, but Brian Mundubile contested the presidency on the NRPUP ticket. Makebi Zulu became his running mate under the same arrangement. Candidates entered the election carrying the party identity. Tonse was the coalition; NRPUP supplied the electoral platform.
This is why developments since the defeat deserve to be read together rather than separately. Mundubile rejected the presidential result and announced plans for a petition. NRPUP president Ezra Tembo then accepted Hakainde Hichilema’s victory. Tonse founder and secretary-general Chris Zumani Zimba subsequently said he would not participate in the petition. Now NRPUP itself has walked out of the alliance. These are no longer rumours about disagreement. They are public political decisions pointing in different directions.
The leadership problem is equally striking. Mundubile and Zulu have remained at premises associated with an international organisation in Lusaka while police seek to question them over the continuing investigation into alleged militia and national-security activities. Police say formal call-outs have been served through their lawyers. The two have expressed concerns about their safety and treatment. Those concerns should be reported alongside an equally important fact: being summoned for questioning is not a finding of guilt, and allegations arising from the investigation remain allegations until tested through due process.
The result is an unusual moment for an opposition movement immediately after an election. Its presidential candidate is disputing the result. The party which sponsored him has accepted it and left his alliance. Some senior figures want reconciliation. Others want litigation. Meanwhile, parts of the leadership are dealing with a widening security investigation. The election produced one defeat. Its aftermath is producing several battles.
We have also been gathering information suggesting Resolute Party figures are considering their own future within Tonse. We are treating this as developing political intelligence rather than an accomplished fact. Until the party formally announces a decision, it remains exactly that. But NRPUP’s departure makes the wider question unavoidable: how many members of an alliance constructed principally around the 2026 contest are prepared to remain together for five years outside government?
There is another development readers should watch. Sources familiar with discussions inside NRPUP say elements within the party favour a working relationship with the government, particularly where cooperation could help elected NRPUP MPs, councillors, mayors and council chairpersons deliver services in areas they now represent. The People’s Brief has not established any formal agreement between NRPUP and UPND. Cooperation should therefore not be reported as a coalition or political deal unless evidence emerges. But NRPUP’s language about its “future political affiliation” makes its next destination a legitimate story to watch.
This is where power enters the equation. Before August, NRPUP was a small political organisation lending its legal structure to a much larger electoral project. After August, it has elected representatives and a national profile. Parliamentary leadership, candidate selection, party structures, financing and the relationship between elected representatives and the registered party suddenly matter. Control of NRPUP now carries considerably more political value than it did before the election.
One point requires correction, however, because misinformation is already circulating around possible defections and by-elections. Tonse withdrawing, splitting or losing member parties does not itself trigger parliamentary by-elections. Tonse is an alliance, not the political party which sponsored NRPUP candidates. An NRPUP withdrawal from Tonse therefore does not automatically vacate the seats of MPs elected under NRPUP.
The same distinction applies to Mundubile’s proposed presidential petition. NRPUP leaving Tonse does not, by itself, extinguish the constitutional right to challenge a presidential election. The decisive questions are who has legal standing, whether a petition is actually filed within the constitutional deadline, and what evidence is placed before the Constitutional Court. Political alliances can fracture while litigation continues. The two processes should not be confused.
What we are watching, therefore, is the transition from an electoral coalition to post-election politics. Coalitions often appear strongest when their members share an immediate objective. Winning power provides discipline. A common opponent provides cohesion. Defeat removes the prize and forces every participant to calculate independently what comes next.
Tonse faces precisely this problem. Many of its prominent personalities came from the political world built around the Patriotic Front. They managed to assemble behind Mundubile because August offered a common destination: State House. Hichilema’s victory removed that destination for another electoral cycle. The question now is whether Tonse possessed enough institutional glue beyond the election to survive losing it.
Our assessment is that more turbulence is likely. This does not necessarily mean Tonse disappears. Mundubile retains a substantial electoral constituency after his presidential performance, and opposition politics rarely moves in a straight line. But expect arguments over leadership, parliamentary influence, resources, strategy and responsibility for the defeat. Expect departures. Expect attempted reconciliations. And, as alliances unravel, expect insiders to begin telling competing versions of what happened during the campaign.
There is also a lesson here for political supporters online. Political intelligence does not always arrive packaged in information people want to hear. When The People’s Brief reports signs of disagreement, readers should distinguish reporting from allegiance. NRPUP’s departure was preceded by visible political signals. Those signals mattered even when supporters preferred to dismiss them.
The next five years will be long. Opposition politics will reorganise more than once before Zambia votes again. Today’s enemies may cooperate tomorrow. Today’s allies may contest against each other. A party which fought UPND in August may negotiate with its government over constituency interests months later. None of this is unusual. It is how political actors respond when the distribution of power changes.
The tree has fallen.
The important story now is not whether every bird mourns it. It is where each one chooses to land next.
© The People’s Brief | Editors