🇿🇲 EXPLAINER | Hichilema’s Grow Zambia agenda and the difficult road to 2031
President Hakainde Hichilema has placed Grow Zambia at the centre of his second-term economic programme, promising to move the country from stabilisation towards higher production, investment, exports and employment. The House of Chiefs has now backed the agenda, with Chairperson Chief Bunda Bunda saying traditional leaders can encourage entrepreneurship, facilitate responsible access to land and help communities participate in economic activity.
At the heart of Grow Zambia are ambitious targets for 2031: 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000 megawatts of electricity, five million international tourists, three million tonnes of copper, three million tonnes of soya beans, one million tonnes of wheat, one million tonnes of sugar and US$1 billion in beef exports. Hichilema’s argument is that the first term concentrated on debt restructuring and economic stability, while the second must make those gains visible through jobs, businesses and household incomes.
Much of the agenda, however, is not entirely new. The three-million-tonne copper ambition has been government policy for several years and already has a national strategy behind it. Large maize, wheat, tourism and electricity targets have also appeared in earlier government plans. Grow Zambia therefore appears to bring several existing sector ambitions under one political and economic framework, with production becoming the central measure of the administration’s second term.
The scale is formidable. Zambia’s latest maize estimates are close to five million tonnes, meaning production would have to roughly double to reach 10 million tonnes. Copper presents an even steeper climb from recent annual production below one million tonnes to three million. Achieving such increases will require more than additional land and mines. Zambia will need irrigation, mechanisation, storage, transport, exploration, processing, skilled labour, capital and dependable markets
Electricity could determine how much of the programme is achievable. Zambia currently has installed generation capacity far below the targeted 10,000 MW, while recent drought conditions exposed the risks of heavy dependence on hydropower.
Mines require enormous quantities of electricity, as do irrigation systems, factories, cold-storage facilities and tourism businesses. Grow Zambia’s targets are therefore interconnected: failure to substantially expand reliable power would make several of the other ambitions considerably harder.
Agriculture presents another question beyond production: who will buy the surplus? Zambia cannot consume 10 million tonnes of maize domestically every year, while huge increases in soya, wheat, sugar and beef would also require dependable regional and international markets. Producing more without storage, processing, transport and buyers can depress farm-gate prices instead of creating wealth.
Grow Zambia will consequently have to function as an export and agro-processing strategy, not simply a campaign to produce larger harvests.
Chief Bunda Bunda says traditional leaders can help by encouraging businesses and making land available for productive investments. This could be important because much of Zambia’s land falls under customary tenure.
But land mobilisation will require transparent agreements, protection of customary interests and meaningful benefits for communities. The stronger model would not merely provide investors with land, but enable local people to participate through farming, supply contracts, tourism enterprises, employment and ownership.
Financing is another major test. Zambia is emerging from a prolonged debt restructuring process and cannot realistically finance the entire programme through government borrowing. Much of Grow Zambia will therefore depend on private capital: mining companies expanding production, independent power producers building generation, commercial farmers investing in irrigation and processing, and tourism businesses expanding accommodation and connectivity.
Government’s role will be to provide predictable regulation, infrastructure, trade access and policy stability capable of attracting that investment.
The biggest measure, however, will be what happens inside households. Zambia has recorded periods of strong GDP growth before without prosperity spreading evenly across the population. Hichilema acknowledged during his inauguration that many families had not yet felt the benefits of economic stabilisation.
If copper production triples while employment stagnates, or agricultural output doubles while farmers cannot obtain profitable prices, the headline targets will tell only part of the economic story.
Grow Zambia is therefore ambitious but measurable. Copper tonnes, megawatts, tourist arrivals, harvests, exports and jobs can all be tracked between now and 2031. What government still needs to make clearer is the implementation architecture: annual milestones, financing requirements, responsible institutions and how increased national production will translate into household income.
Zambia has been given the destination. The real test is whether government can now show the route, finance the journey and demonstrate progress before 2031 arrives.
– The People’s Brie | Ollus R. Ndomu