Moscow Could Sustain the War Until 2028
Russia may still have sufficient resources to continue financing its war against Ukraine through 2027–2028, despite growing economic pressures, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR).
Ivashchenko said Moscow is facing several mounting challenges, including manpower shortages, a widening budget deficit and pressure on the banking system. However, he assessed that Russia’s remaining financial reserves could allow it to maintain its current war effort for roughly another two years.
🇺🇦 Kyiv argues that Western sanctions, restrictions on foreign components and Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia could gradually weaken Moscow’s ability to sustain its defense industry. Ukrainian officials say attacks on Russian territory have increasingly targeted production facilities, logistics networks and repair infrastructure.
Meanwhile, documents cited by POLITICO reportedly indicate that a Chinese state-owned company supplied 46 tonnes of carbon-fiber-related materials to a subsidiary of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom. The materials are reportedly linked to manufacturing processes used for attack drones.
⚠️ The assessment highlights a central challenge facing Ukraine and its Western allies: even under significant economic strain, Russia may retain the capacity to sustain a prolonged war for several more years.