SUPER EL NIÑO THREATENS ZAMBIA AS EXPERTS URGE EARLY PREPARATIONS
Environmentalist Abel Musumali has warned that Zambia should begin preparing for a projected “super El Niño”, which could significantly affect agriculture, livelihoods, water security and the economy during the coming farming season.
Speaking on the Mid Morning Report on Capital FM 99.7, Mr Musumali explained that El Niño was a natural weather phenomenon associated with unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, whose effects could extend to Southern Africa.
“El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that occurs when the waters in the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm,” Mr Musumali said.
He said the phenomenon generally increased the likelihood of drought and reduced rainfall, while its opposite, La Niña, was associated with increased precipitation and possible flooding.
Mr Musumali said the projected El Niño was expected to become more pronounced around November and December, making early preparations essential.
“This projected El Niño is being described as a ‘super El Niño’ because the probability of its occurrence is projected to be around 90 percent,” he said.
He warned that the impact would go beyond agriculture, potentially affecting household incomes, education, water and sanitation, food security and other sectors.
“The important thing for us now is preparation,” Mr Musumali said.
He recalled the devastating effects of the 2023–2024 drought, which affected about 84 of Zambia’s 116 districts and approximately 1.1 million hectares of farmland.
He said reduced water levels in strategic dams also contributed to prolonged power outages.
Mr Musumali said Southern and Western provinces were expected to be among the most affected, alongside parts of Eastern, Lusaka and Central provinces, while northern areas could experience less severe effects.
“This presents an opportunity,” he said, urging increased agricultural investment in less-affected areas to strengthen national food production.
He stressed the importance of providing farmers with timely information before planting so they could make informed decisions.
“Ultimately, this is not just an environmental issue. It is a national development issue,” Mr Musumali said, calling for early warning systems, proper planning and coordinated action across sectors.