UKRAINE WARNS RUSSIA COULD EXHAUST MILITARY CAPACITY BY 2028
Russia could struggle to sustain the current intensity of its war in Ukraine by 2028 if its casualty levels remain unchanged, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko.
Ukraine’s HUR estimates that Russia is currently recruiting around 1,000–1,200 soldiers per day, but says Russian losses are now exceeding the country’s ability to replace personnel. Western intelligence services reportedly estimate Russia’s manpower shortfall at approximately 6,000 soldiers per month.
According to Ivashchenko, fatalities now account for around 60% of Russian military losses. The HUR estimates that if the current intensity of fighting continues for another 18 months, Russia could suffer approximately 766,000 additional dead and wounded personnel.
Ukrainian intelligence also claims that some Russian generals could push President Vladimir Putin to announce another mobilization of up to 800,000 troops after the elections. However, the HUR assesses that Russia’s military training and integration capacity would allow it to process only around 300,000–500,000 recruits simultaneously.
The HUR further expects the number of North Korean troops deployed to Russia to increase significantly, potentially rising from around 8,000 personnel to nearly 50,000.
If these assessments prove accurate, Kyiv believes Russia could face growing manpower and training constraints over the coming years, potentially limiting its ability to maintain the current pace of military operations through 2028.