Saudi Halts Oil Exports to Europe and India — Russia Cashes InSaudi Halts Oil Exports to Europe and India — Russia Cashes In
Saudi Arabia has suspended long-term crude supplies to Europe and India after attacks on its East-West pipeline. European refiners got no October allocations. Indian refiners were told supplies are halted “until further notice.”
Moscow is the unlikely winner.
Russia’s Windfall
· Urals at a premium: Russian crude in Asia now trades about $8/barrel ABOVE Brent…a first since June
· India pivots: India bought ~1.9 million barrels/day of Russian crude in September…over 35% of its total imports
· Cash flowing in: Russia’s weekly seaborne oil revenue hit $2.42 billion in mid-September
Why Russia ?
Europe’s supply route through the Red Sea is compromised. Russian crude reaches Asia via Kozmino and the Northern Sea Route…avoiding the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Asian buyers get supply. Russia gets premium prices.
Sakaria Shikomba Warns: “This Could Spark World War Three”
Analyst Sakaria Shikomba issued a stark warning: if Iran attacks the pipeline again, Saudi Arabia might strike back directly at Iran…and that escalation could drag the entire world into a third world war.
The pipeline is already a proven target. Saudi officials have repeatedly blamed Iran for ordering attacks on the East-West line, and Riyadh has warned Tehran that continued strikes on its energy infrastructure would force retaliation. Shikomba’s point: the next attack may not be met with restraint.
Europe pays more for replacement barrels. India pays a premium for Russian crude. Russia’s budget fills up. And with Iran watching, the next pipeline strike could turn an energy crisis into a shooting war.
Saudi Arabia’s pipeline problem became Russia’s payday. But if Shikomba’s warning proves right, the next chapter won’t be about oil prices…it’ll be about survival.
-M21 News