EXCHANGE RATE IS UNSTABLE, IT’S BAD
Remy Kangwa
Let me clarify something for those saying “this rate is stable”, “be shrewd” or “forecast better”.
Exchange rate stability is about predictability, not just coping or surviving.
Some of you sound very smart on this topic, but truth be told, you’ve never even imported a spade or a bag of rice from Tunduma Nakonde. So how, for God’s sake, would you understand what this kind of currency movement means in Nakonde or Kasumbalesa, let alone vehicle imports?
In businesses like mine where we import cars on a daily basis, a move from K19 to K20 overnight is NOT stable. That’s K1 per dollar on transactions worth thousands of dollars. On a $10,000 car, that’s K10,000 gone instantly, no mistake, no inefficiency, just currency movement.
And let’s be honest about the ground reality:
On cars, clients already know the exchange rate.
Tell them to add even one dollar, they’ll say:
“No, today kwacha is at ABCD.”
You finally get the money.
You wake up the next morning.
The rate has moved.
So tell me; how exactly do you apply your ‘skills’ there?
We price vehicles before sourcing forex.
Forex access is not instant.
Banks delay.
Customers delay.
Customs doesn’t care about theories or regression models.
Skills and forecasting help reduce damage, yes but they do not eliminate currency volatility, especially where hedging tools are limited for SMEs.
What may look “stable” in small-ticket or local businesses is not stable in high-value, USD-denominated imports like cars and machinery.
And to the young cadres viewing everything through political lenses you got to relax.
This is not politics.
This is livelihood.
What feeds you is not what feeds us.
When the exchange rate moves unpredictably, planning becomes gambling, prices go up, and the risk is pushed to the consumer. That’s the reality on the ground.
If you don’t deal with daily dollar exposure, it may sound like theory. For those of us who do it’s practical, immediate, and costly.
we got to be a bit more serious.
#TogetherAsOne