IT MAYBE A PRIVATE MATTER FOR GOVT: BUT ITS A POLITICAL STRATEGY FOR MAKEBI AND BRIAN
HOW funeral politics will unfold and why this is the greatest political gamble in the history of Zambia.
Even if its a private matter, Makebi will not bury in South Africa. They will wait until the August elections.
Burying concludes the matter. But they cant do that because they want to see if they will win August, then bring the body back.
Its the biggest gamble of their lives. And it will be interesting to unfold.
Now … lets calculate their chances. The current ticket is bemba and eastern, this automatically establishes it as a tribal ticket that will hardly get votes from zambezi region, there is no balancing. Under PD we had Inonge wina for balancing. This current team is stubbornly going to ignore other regions in their development agenda.
So once i take out south, western, and north western im remaining with central, lusaka and copperbelt. This is the semi to ultra urban vote.
Where they will suffer the most is forner PF strongholds as any push above 20% of the votes can easily net 300k to 500k votes for UPND. ( rural areas have benefited greatly from free education). Urbanites dont understand this because they are taking their kids to private school.
What urbanites of lusaka and copperbelt wanted was money flowing through them, as has always been the case. But the truth of the matter is that the urbanites will no longer have their strong vote as the rural areas become sturbbonly aware. Lusaka and Copperbelt will no longer drive zambian politics.
What you will start seeing is the rural vote fighting against the cluster of urban votes on copperbelt and lusaka.
I will dare to say this… 50/50 urban vote in lusaka and copperbelt, and an average of 70/30 rural vote.
UPND is likely to take northern province and eastern province, which will be an extreme shame to the brian and makebi ticket because they were heavily dependent on the tribal vote coming out. But it wont come out… because everyone knows that this ticket is functionally incompetent.
Signed
George “Papa G” Mtonga