IT’S SCIENTIFIC, ZAMBIA IS HEADED FOR A SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT
By Nawa Sitali, Socialist Party Member
Science is clothed in fact and one cannot argue with it, forget the fake paraded crowds transported to carry placards of support for the UPND in order to deceive and stroke the egos of its leader, they don’t mean anything, votes and science do, and the science shows that The Socialist Party is the next Government.
Cde President Dr Fred M’membe had once shared with me an interesting concept of winning the Battle vs winning the W@r, he always emphasizes, focus on winning the war, not the small battles, you can win all the battles, but lose the w@r. Now keep this concept in mind, as it will make sense down the line.
As we come closer to the close of 2024 and sniff the 2026 general elections, the political landscape has undergone interesting shifts. The UPND is facing a notable decline in support, and follower-ship, whilst the Socialist Party of Zambia is experiencing serious increase in support. If science is anything to go by, then we must all agree that UPND is heading for an upset in 2026 because the Socialist Party will emerge as the winner of the 2026 general elections. Here is why;
By-Elections: By elections are usually seen as an indication of the political climate, infact, in one of the few truths he has told so far, Mr. Hakainde Hichilema himself has talked about their importance, stating (verbatim-so he doesn’t deny), “By-elections are an indication of how people feel about the government and its performance.” I know he is a difficult man to believe for obvious reasons, however, If we take his statement at face value, the recent by-election results paint a picture that the UPND is losing support, despite winning the electoral seats (Remember the concept of small battles and W@r, think about it for a second).
Now let’s justify our sentiments with the use of numbers, and numbers, do not lie. Between 2021 and 2024, the UPND has experienced an average decrease of approximately 24.69% in vote share across various wards and districts (attached an analysis in the comments). This decline is particularly significant in areas like Lusangazi District, where the UPND’s vote share reduced by 83.7%. Even in areas where the UPND managed to retain some support, such as the Kawambwa Council Chairperson by-election, they still saw a decrease of 4.6%.
In contrast, the Socialist Party has shown an impressive average growth of approximately 112.68% in vote share over the same period. This growth is not limited to a few isolated areas but is spread across multiple wards and districts across the country. For instance, in Mumbotuta Ward, Milenge, the Socialist Party’s vote share increased by a staggering 242.9%, while in Buntungwa Ward, Mufulira, we saw a 176% increase.
Given the current trends of Loadshedding, increased cost of living, disenfranchised UPND voters, and emergence of new voters in the next elections, a significant portion of undecided, frustrated and first time voters will likely gravitate towards the Socialist Party as the political alternative of the UPND. To be fair, UPND might also capture some of these first time voters (not the frustrated ones, there is no mirracle that captures those), but their declining trend suggests they may not benefit as much as the Socialist Party from these voters.
Afrobarometer Report-2024;
It’s not just the by-election results that indicate trouble for the UPND. The recent Afrobarometer report also highlights growing dissatisfaction with the UPND government. The report indicates that that about 70% of Zambians feel that the UPND has not lived up to its promises and that there is a growing desire for change.
If we tie the two indications together, it means that the UPND will continue to lose support, and their failures have continued to prevent them in maintaining their current level of support. Over five years (from 2021 to 2026), this could result in a total decrease of approximately 41.15% for the UPND.
On the other hand, the Socialist Party’s growth suggests they won’t only be a contender but will actually win the 2026 elections. Factoring by election results and reflecting them over five years tied with the Afrobarometer report, the Party is experiencing an increase of approximately 187.8% per year.
Mr. Hakainde himself said, consult the graph, because numbers don’t lie, and right now, according to the numbers, Zambians are saying the UPND is not right for them, this means that Zambia is at the blink of electing its first socialist government.
A Socialist Government is inevitable, but it requires you to contribute to its growth. Join the many Zambians that have taken the decision to be part of the Socialist Party today. Let us work together, to deliver Zambia from the Socio-economic disastrous lying and manipulative UPND.